When I went to Atlantic City the other weekend, I took with me about 1R worth of money to gamble. I figured I would risk about what I usually risk on one trade. I was fine losing that amount. When I withdrew the cash from my bank, I considered it money lost.
I read about craps online. Although it has the best odds out of any other casino game of chance, it still has a negative expectancy - the optimal strategy is not to bet. Not betting may not sound like much fun, but some people consider losing money even less fun. I’m one of those people. Still, I don’t go to the casino often, and I was with friends, so I decided to let loose and play a negative expectancy game.
After reading about the statistics, I was able to bet in a way that gave the casino very little edge. I’d put $10 on the pass line. This bet gave the house a 1.41% edge. If I didn’t crap out on this roll, though, I was able to triple this bet and put $30 more behind the pass line. This $40 bet is even odds, but can only be played if you take the first bet. So I think the two bets together give the house less than a 0.5% edge.
I figured with only $40 at most on the table (and ten times that amount in reserves) I would be able to withstand most drawdowns and there was a good chance of quitting while I was ahead.
I got lucky on my first day and I just kept winning. The money started to roll in and I decided to play it like a trade - I’d keep a trailing stop. Each time I went over another multiple of $100, I decided to put the stop at the last $100 mark. So I ended up quitting at over +$300 the first day.
When my friends kept gambling throughout the evening, I didn’t want to play anymore - I figured why push my luck? So I went to check out the new poker room and enjoy the free drinks.
The next day, before I left, I thought to myself, “the odds are almost 50-50. Why don’t I just go to the table with the $300 I won, and if I can get it to $400, I will quit for an easy $100 profit.” It’s true, I am risking $300 to make $100. But I have a much better chance of walking away with $100 than I do of losing. I would lose more if I lost, but I had a better chance of winning than losing. So I went and made another $100+ and quit.
I wouldn’t quit my day job (if I had one) to go to the casinos with this strategy, because, like I said, it has a negative expectancy. But if you’re at a casino and you want to play a game of chance with the best odds - and craps is fun because when you win, everyone at the table wins - then this is probably a good bet. It worked for me.