Archive for the 'deep thoughts' Category

Applying Parrando’s paradox to the stock market

Sunday, December 2nd, 2007

I found this article in the nytimes (from Jan. 2000) about Parrando’s paradox very interesting. Two losing games can be combined to create a winning strategy.

Economists are studying Parrando’s paradox to help find the best strategies for managing investments. Dr. Sergei Maslov, a physicist at Brookhaven National Laboratory in Upton, N.Y., recently showed that if an investor simultaneously shared capital between two losing stock portfolios, capital would increase rather than decrease. ”It’s mind-boggling,” Dr. Maslov said. ”You can turn two minuses into a plus.” But so far, he said, it is too early to apply his model to the real stock market because of its complexity.

I’m dying to know more about this. Anyone heard of it being used in the market?
I’m also headed to Las Vegas this coming weekend - maybe if I alternate between craps and blackjack I can make millions.
I was disappointed to read this:

Unfortunately, Parrando’s paradox will not work for the kinds of games played in casinos, Dr. Abbott said. Games A and B must be set up to copy a ratchet, which means they must have some direct interaction.

Wikipedia also says that this theory won’t work in the stock market for the same reason.
There must be a way. Maybe I can figure something out on the 5 hour flight to Vegas.

Call Ralph on the big white phone

Tuesday, November 6th, 2007

I was reading this article when I came across an expression I had never heard before (emphasis mine):

Reversal of fortune. Elvis has left the building. Refunding. Toss your cookies. Call Ralph on the big white phone. Puke.


I thought it was pretty funny and strange. What a strange saying. “Call Ralph on the big white phone?” I like it.
I guess it has to do with the fact that when you vomit it sometimes sounds like you are saying “Ralph.” But I don’t think it does, really. And I guess the “big white phone” is really the toilet? I never really thought of the toilet as a phone.
At some point someone must have thought that vomiting into a toilet seemed somewhat similar to if you were calling a guy named Ralph on a giant white porcelain telephone sitting on the floor.
In one of the Harry Potter movies, one guy is comforting the other (who is vomiting) and says, “better out than in.” I like that one, too.

Thought for the day: Future impossibilities

Sunday, November 4th, 2007

Rail travel at high speed is not possible because the passengers, unable to breathe, would die of asphyxia.

Dr. Dionysus Lardner, University College, London (1830)
from responsible nanotechnology

Humanity is not the solution of evolution

Sunday, October 21st, 2007

Here’s an interesting idea that I thought about the other day. What if humans aren’t the smartest species on Earth? What if something else has evolved that is smarter? Maybe we just don’t recognize them - like an ant doesn’t recognize us. Isn’t it possible? Imagine that something god-like has evolved from us already - we just don’t see or notice them because we are too dumb to understand or comprehend it.
I think it is definitely possible. Humans are very egocentric. We think that evolution’s goal was to make us - the smartest things in all of history. Million and millions of years were spent refining what we are today. Maybe an ant thinks the same thing about themselves, not realizing that we are much smarter than them.
Perhaps there is something godlike living amongst and around us right now.
Even if there isn’t already, I believe there will be someday. This is part of the idea of the Singularity - we are evolving quickly. Something much greater than us will eventually emerge, just as we have evolved from bacteria.

Working at Netflix and Ayn Rand

Wednesday, October 17th, 2007

Netflix values and rewards 9 core behaviors, including this one:

Selflessness
You are perceived to be guided by what you think is best for Netflix, rather than best for yourself. You are ego-less when it comes to finding the best ideas and interacting with others.

This is very anti-Ayn Rand, and also kind of stupid. So if I work at Netflix I have to forget about my own wants and wishes and give my soul to Netflix? If you work at uglychart.com, we value this one:

Selfishness
You are guided by what you think is best for yourself (obviously), and uglychart.com will reward those who work hard. You know you are smart and good at what you do, why else would we have hired you?

I think the confusion comes in that people think that selfishness means not doing for others and greed means stealing and other dishonest and unkind acts. The Dalai Lama even says that the goal of life is to be happy. But sometimes the best way to this selfish desire is through acts that may seem selfless. And sometimes the best way to this noble goal is through acts that may seem selfish.
I think the Dalai Lama and Ayn Rand are saying the same thing, deep down.

An End to Day Trading

Thursday, October 11th, 2007

I have accepted an offer for a full-time programming job and I have decided to quit day trading.
The main reason I have decided to do this is because I think I can make just as much money from position trading as I do from day trading. So I will have more money with an added salary. I think it is more responsible. I plan to devote a lot of effort to position trading and my ATS. My plan is to get an ATS running by November 1.
Being able to make income from day trading allowed me to wait for an ideal programming job. It is also comforting to know that I don’t have to depend on any employer - if something happens and I lose the job, I can always trade.
Trading is mental torture. So after two years of trading during the day, I am kind of happy to return to position trading and working on the ATS. I love the stock market and will always be a part of it. But I am happy to have a stable income once again (and a break during the day). It is a lot easier emotionally. Trading drains you.
Did I fail? In some ways. I didn’t make a fortune. I made enough to live on. After all was said and done, I think I ended where I started - my net worth is the same as it was when I began. I’m glad I did it, but I’m glad it’s done.
There is a part of me that thinks I could have made a fortune if I had continued. I know that I know how to trade.
But I still plan to make a fortune.
One problem I had was not enough starting capital. I began with very little. It made things much more difficult.
The other problem I didn’t realize until maybe after a year or so. I think a lot of traders underestimate the importance of plunging. Yeah, you have to manage your risk and be careful. But you have to take the plunge when you think you are right. You have to. This contributed to much of my success in the last couple of months.
My goal is to build up my account like pinoytrader - working full time and swing/position trading.
Life is one decision after another - and sometimes you make the wrong ones, but you have to learn that for yourself. I think the important thing is to keep trying. Don’t let anyone tell you that you failed. Keep trying. You succeed in the attempt.

She knows there’s no success like failure
And that failure’s no success at all.

On a walk today I had a surge of ambition swell up inside of me. I love that feeling. It is a feeling of not being content with where you are, but a feeling of wanting to build and work and accomplish. I want to do great things. I hope I never lose that feeling. I want to keep trying forever - even after success. I don’t want anything to stop me.

Thought for the day: Art & Business

Wednesday, September 19th, 2007

Making money is art and working is art and good business is the best art.

-Andy Warhol

Trading with thought alone

Wednesday, September 5th, 2007

This actually isn’t that far off - the ability to trade while watching the charts, simply by thinking about buying or selling - and how many shares. In a few years, instead of hitting your hot key to short 500 AAPL, you’ll just think it.
Short 500 AAPL.
Don’t believe me? BCI’s (brain-computer interfaces) are already being used by the medical community and will be for sale in the gaming community by next year.

BCIs can allow game players to move around and manipulate objects within virtual game environments, using thought alone. They can also detect and monitor the brain-wave patterns associated with a person’s emotional state and stress levels.

Reread that last sentence above and think about how useful this will be to traders. Not only will it allow for super fast order entry, but perhaps you could set it up not to accept orders if your emotional state is “off” or your stress level is too high. It could force you to always trade “in the zone.”
Once this happens, and I think it will soon, I wonder what effect it will have on the market - as it will become a kind of collective brain of capitalism.
We are beginning to merge with the machines - and I’m not kidding.

Thought for the day: Excuses

Wednesday, September 5th, 2007

DinosaurTrader pointed out a quote from George Washington Yoda today on wallstreak.

“Do, or do not. There is no try.”

It is also something I have been thinking about. I have come to the conclusion that there are no excuses in trading. There may be some possible reasons for a certain outcome, but there are no excuses. You either do it or you don’t.

Here are some other quotes:

“He that is good for making excuses is seldom good for anything else.” - Benjamin Franklin

“Bad excuses are worse than none.” - Thomas Fuller

“He who excuses himself, accuses himself.” - Gabriel Meurier

“Apology is only egotism wrong side out.” - Oliver Wendell Holmes

“It is better to offer no excuse than a bad one.” - George Washington

Ninety-nine percent of the failures come from people who have the habit of making excuses. - George Washington Carver

Difficulty is the excuse history never accepts. - Edward R. Murrow

The real man is one who always finds excuses for others, but never excuses himself. - Henry Ward Beecher

I attribute my success to this:I never gave or took an excuse. - Florence Nightingale

Radical Honesty on uglychart.com

Wednesday, September 5th, 2007

I found this article on Radical Honesty in Esquire to be hilarious. The author interviews Brad Blanton, a psychotherapist who started the movement - which is to tell nothing but the truth all the time. The interview is great because it is totally honest:

“My boss says you sound like a dick,” I say.

“Tell your boss he’s a dick,” he says.

“I’m glad you picked your nose just now,” I say. “Because it was funny and disgusting, and it’ll make a good detail for the article.”

This Blanton sounds like quite an interesting guy.
Also the idea is interesting. Blanton thinks of honesty as a crude compassion. But the author talks about how most of us are dishonest because we think it is cruel to be honest.
Honesty is also just really funny, for some reason. For people to just say what is on their minds makes me laugh. Like when the author tells his conversing barber “You know, I’m tired. I have a cold. I don’t want to talk anymore. I want to read.” And the barber says “fine - go ahead and read.”
But the author’s experiment with radical honesty leads to some insights:

That’s one thing I’ve noticed: When I am radically honest, people become radically honest themselves.

I’m all for Radical Honesty in everyday life - but I think it would be very difficult and take a lot of courage. I try to be honest, and maybe I’ll try to be a little more radically honest in my day to day life. But on a blog, it shouldn’t be that difficult, right? That’s the appeal of a blog, isn’t it? A radically honest look into someone’s life? Actually it seems to me that the more radically honest the blog, the more interesting I find it.
So if I believe this, I should make this blog as radically honest as I can. Okay, I may give this a try but I need a couple of weeks to think it over.