March 08, 2006

AMR Corp. (AMR)

With the end of the day run today, I was able to get a nice long entry - but I screwed it up! It sucks, man. It's rare you get an opportunity like this and you have to take advantage of it when you get it. It is a lesson I should have already known, but I'll try to learn it again from this trade. If you sell half - only sell half! Let the rest run. But this chart looks great - I was tempted to hold overnight. I think this one and PLXS will do well tomorrow:

Comments

Best of luck next time!

Posted by: Tim at March 8, 2006 06:47 PM

thanks Tim

Posted by: Ugly at March 8, 2006 06:53 PM

Yes, sell half and only half, but keep a close stop on the rest. Moves like you had today can peter out quickly. GOOG is famous for it's headfakes.

Are you in an intra-daily chat anywhere?

Posted by: indigo-alien at March 8, 2006 06:55 PM

Ugly, just curious why you chose block trades to flag candidates for you?

Posted by: Babak at March 8, 2006 06:58 PM

indigo - I keep google talk open (uglychart@gmail.com) but otherwise I don't participate in any other chats
babak - block trades show what the big players are doing and I try to do what they are doing because they usually know what they are doing

Posted by: Ugly at March 8, 2006 08:56 PM

oh, ok. But a block trade has two sides. I mean, a big buyer met a big seller, right? So when you say, that you try to do what "big players" are doing... I'm not sure if I understand what you mean.

Whatever you do, you're going against one side of a "big player", right?

Posted by: Babak at March 9, 2006 01:46 AM

good question - but there could also be just one big player who is buying from or selling to all the "little" players and it would still be recorded as a block trade. That's why it's important to see which way the price of the stock moves after the trade - so you can assume whether they were selling or buying.

Posted by: Ugly at March 9, 2006 07:48 AM

scanning for block trades is one form of what could be termed "tape reading." When a large participant either sells or buys large amounts of shares, the market making firms have a problem of finding an equilibrium. The outcome is a larger than average change in price until equilibrium is attained. Large participants, with their access to greater sources of capital, have the capacity to move the price significantly higher or lower. It could be just one participant, or it could be serveral acting in concert. The participants can actually be aware of each others' intentions, or it can be done with no information being shared beforehand.

Posted by: Monksdream at March 9, 2006 09:11 AM


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