November 18, 2005

The Singularity, TASR and Population Growth

Have you seen the following chart?

Yes, it looks just like TASR in '03-'04, but that's not what I am talking about.
It is identical to the chart that Ray Kurzweil made (if you rotate it and graph it linearly) - of humanity's increasing pace of technological advancement - as evidence for the Singularity. However, this chart is actually one of the world's population from 10000 BC to 2000 AD.
Maybe the technological advancement of the world is simply a matter of more brains working in technology? Could we be watching a top in the charts? Look what happened to TASR:

Will the same happen to the world population and our technological advancement? Is it time to short the world?
The trend is up, and you should trade with the trend. But always have a stop!

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Comments

Heh, what a delightful musing. Thanks for posting.

Posted by: Anonymous at November 21, 2005 12:32 AM

Many growth charts reach a point of hyperbolic growth. The question is always - What's next? Are we looking at an AOL meltdown or a (more typical) levelling off?

Growth charts of this nature are typically used by 2 types of people: the first use it to show "the trend is up, trade the trend, there's no end in sight". This plays to the common linear thought pattern of most humans, and Ponzi-type investing takes place.
The second use it to sell doom and gloom, "the growth pattern is too fast, too far, in too short a period of time, it HAS to fall". Well, it doesn't HAVE to fall. Because if you look at most bacteriological charts, there's a tendency to level off. But the typical human is not interested in a boring answer to an otherwise boring concept. We humans LOVE hyperbole. That's why up can only mean up, or it can only mean down. For most linear thinkers, there are only 2 answers to a question of "What's next?".

Posted by: rmonihan at November 21, 2005 01:07 PM

I visited the Kurzweil site and watched his interview with Charlie Rose. Very interesting stuff, indeed.

There's a chance we might get smarter and live considerably longer than we ever anticipated should we avoid an unfortunate and abbreviated end to our lives in the next 20 years. We might have nanosomethings racing thru our veins by that time but we'll be alive and well.

Tons of investing potential should any of this come true. And if we live as long as Kurzweil expects, we'll need the coin from stock market investments to pay for the cost of living that long. I'd say that's long term bullish on humanity.

Posted by: Todd at November 21, 2005 10:31 PM


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