| Sun | Mon | Tue | Wed | Thu | Fri | Sat |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 3 | ||||
| 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 |
| 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
| 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 |
| 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 |
#
>
« August 2004 |
Main
| October 2004 »
There was heavy volume on the DJIA today, but not really on the Nasdaq and low volume on the QQQ. On Yahoo Finance they say it is because of MRK, and that is probably true to some extent, but it doesn't tell me what to expect from the markets in the future. Whatever happens tomorrow, they will say it is because of the presidential debate.
But the heavy volume is important to note when watching the charts.
Large volume like this on a down or unchanged day looks weak to me. Next week we should see either last weeks highs being broken on the upside or this weeks lows on the downside. My guess is that this volume confirms that last weeks highs are set as lower highs in the down trend since the beginning of the year.
--------
Posted by Ugly at 05:53 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
BABY broke out a new 52-week high and looks to go higher.
LGF is one to watch. It has gone up steadily since last June when it broke out. Today's intraday chart is an interesting one. It gapped and traded down at the open and ended the day near its high.
JUPM is another that broke out last year and just doesn't want to stop. It always seems to find support at its 30-week moving average.
GMK from the Food Products sector looks good too.
In tribute to Dave Jennings, after spending about 10 years trading between $50-$100, once ALX broke out the round number 100 - it went to 200 very quickly. Now how long to $300?
In Karate class today, my sensei told us that there is a two part move that will kill a person easily everytime but he said he won't teach it to us at this level. I am eager to learn how to run quickly over the top of a lake or how to glide to the top of the roof like they do in Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon.
Posted by Ugly at 10:44 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Wow, TZOO slammed today. The QQQ had a volume spike at the low of the day - could it be a near-term low? A successful test of the 50dma? But the volume for the day was still below average. I think it is just a bump before continuing down.
I am watching for the QQQ to cross below CCI -100, if it does I may buy more puts.
--------
Posted by Ugly at 03:44 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
I subscribe to the Nutrition Action Healthletter, which is by far the best publication on nutrition that I know of. It is small, but it is filled with information and they are right on about everything they say. It is non-biased and also has the courage to tell it like it is:
'With luscious fruit, creamy yogurt flavor and moist golden cake, they're a good source of calcium, like cereal bars. Plus, they have a wholesome taste that can only come from Newtons.' Can you spot the trick words?I have also recently discovered Rooibus tea, which supposedly has all of the health benefits of green tea without the caffeine. (But I would miss how the caffeine in green tea makes my head spin and my brain zone out at work).
'Wholesome taste' means nothing. 'Creamy yogurt flavor' means little or no yogurt. (Each bar has more baking soda than yogurt. What looks like yogurt is largely sugars and partially hydrogenated oil.) And the 'luscious fruit' is mostly a mixture of sugars, strawberries, and dried apples. A single strawberry supplies 10 percent of a day's vitamin C. A Newton Bar has no C. And Nabisco apparently has no shame when it pretends that Strawberry & Yogurt Newton Bars are equal to a cup of yogurt with fresh strawberries.
Nutrition Action Healthletter, September 2004 p.8
Posted by Ugly at 02:44 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
As I've mentioned before, I think Aerospace is currently a good sector to buy stocks. SPDV is an OTC BB stock from this sector with a chart that looks very promising. Virgin Group announced today that they would offer space flights for $190,000 a ticket.
ULBI looks good to watch for shorting.
CASA is still strong.
MCBI looks good.
Top sectors:
Aerospace, Air Freight, Building Materials, Coal, Construction, Consumer Electronics, Energy, Gas Utilities, Industrial Transportation, Marine Transport, Mining, Oil Companies, Oil Drilling Equipment, Recreational Products, Steel, Transportation Services, Trucking, Utilities
Real Estate broke a steep trendline that started near the beginning of 2003 and now could be putting in the second top of a double top chart formation - but it has not yet and would only do so by not breaking out the recent high and by dropping below the May low.
I just watched the second episode of Survivor: Vanuatu and at first I thought the women were going to vote off Eliza and I thought "No, come on - she is way too sexy." And then it looked like they were going to vote off Leann and I thought "No, she is sexy too." And then they started organizing to vote off Dolly, and I was like "Oh come on! She is the sexiest one." I was hoping to at least watch a few more episodes with her, but no - the tribe has spoken.
Posted by Ugly at 08:32 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
The QQQ is sitting just above its 50dma of $34.32
The 200dma was resistance on the upside - it is important that it should not break the 200dma. If it does, it will be bullishness that I am not expecting.
I would not be surprised to see some support at the 50dma. I am not expecting the 50dma support to hold and I think the QQQ will drop below its 50dma again.
Eventually I expect the QQQ to trade to a lower low below $32.35
Having said this, it is important to keep your risk limited because I also expect that everything will not go as expected.
--------
Posted by Ugly at 05:57 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
 |
 |
 |
Posted by Ugly at 01:45 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
I am thinking about and considering what it would be like to only trade the QQQ.
Advantages:
1) you can focus on the QQQ and not worry about anything else
2) takes less time to analyze, instead of sifting through charts of many different stocks
3) less risk than trading individual stocks
4) very liquid - so when my account grows to hundreds of millions of dollars, I can continue trading the QQQ
Disadvantages:
1) higher comissions from trading more frequently
2) may miss opportunities in individual companies
3) it is different than my current system and may not work as well
--------
Posted by Ugly at 01:32 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Charles Kirk, of the Kirk Report, lives within walking distance from my place but he has yet to respond to one email I have sent to him.
I visit his website every now and then for his links to different articles.
Posted by Ugly at 05:35 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
And back in the Spring of 1720, Sir Isaac Newton owned shares in the South Sea Company, the hottest stock in England. Sensing that the market was getting out of hand, the great physicist muttered that he "could calculate the motions of the heavenly bodies, but not the madness of the people." Newton dumped his South Sea shares , pocketing a 100% profit totaling £7,000. But just months later, swept up in the wild enthusiasm of the market, Newton jumped back in at a much higher price - and lost £20,000 (or more than $3 million in today's money). For the rest of his life, he forbade anyone to speak the words "South Sea" in his presence. John Carswell, The South Sea Bubble pp. 131, 199.There was also the Tulip-Bulb Craze in the 1630s.
The amount the market declined from peak to bottom: This number is difficult to calculate, but, we can tell you that at the peak of the market, a person could trade a single tulip for an entire estate, and, at the bottom, one tulip was the price of a common onion.And for those who think that real estate can never go down, there was the Florida Real Estate Craze of the 1920s.
Posted by Ugly at 01:56 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack
Don't.
Says Bob Murphy.
Democracy Uprising marched 258 miles from Boston (the Democratic National Convention) to New York (the Repubican convention) to protest the duality of electoral politics and to celebrate grassroots activism and community awareness. But I think they still want democracy and voting, just a "better" one. I am not sure what they suggest for November 2nd.
A few months ago, I registered to vote for the first time in my life because I wanted to vote against Bush. But now I think that I will continue to protest and not vote.
Posted by Ugly at 07:41 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
What is going on with PSBI? Whatever it is, it is good.
Petro-Canada (PCZ) is a good one for the IRA.
CNLG is one to watch, especially for daytraders.
I noticed ZOOM as I was going over the volume advance charts yesterday, but I didn't mention it because I didn't like the long term chart. The long term chart must not matter as much if you are concerned only with tomorrow.
FOSL in the clothing and fabrics sector, looks like one for the IRA.
I am doing this at a coffee shop, drunk, so I apologize if these picks aren't as "ugly" as usual.
As I am finding out, trading options gives the trend follower a chance to make a lot more money a lot faster - you can also lose money faster and so it is all the more important to cut your losses and limit your risk. Another problem is that comissions are much higher.
--------
Posted by Ugly at 09:44 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
--------
Posted by Ugly at 11:56 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
MSA has a nice looking long term chart. It might be good to buy when it returns to its trendline.
MCRI looks good - it broke out today as did WYNN from the same sector, which also continues to make new highs. Both look good.
KEYW looks strong in a very strong sector - Aerospace.
LUCY looks like it could be ready to make another move for the daytraders. Maybe even to hold longer. There seems to be interest growing in QDIN as well.
--------
Posted by Ugly at 10:35 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
This supports the idea that the market is turning back down for now to conform with the down trend that has been going since the beginning of the year.
There are so many ways to make (or lose) money in the market. Options, futures, technicals, fundamentals, currencies - and then all of the various industries and companies. It is really fascinating.
Posted by Ugly at 05:59 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
I would like to see some confirmation on this downside move on the markets. So, the more it moves down, the more confident I am that it is going to continue moving down. That doesn't mean it has to go down every day, or that it can't make a move up any day - but that it continues trending down.
--------
Posted by Ugly at 10:54 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
I didn't get a chance to look over the volume advance charts last night because I was watching Baadasssss!
This was a really good movie and now I'd like to see Sweet Sweetback's Baad Asssss Song but I don't think they'll have it at the library.
I actually rented this from Blockbuster and it cost me $4.65. I usually only go to the library and would not even consider going to rent a movie to pay for something that I could get for free, but the library was closed and my girlfriend didn't want to watch any of the various samurai and kung fu movies that I had at home.
Looks like BGY is halted and being delisted.
Posted by Ugly at 09:46 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
You never know for sure, but it sure looks like the market has finally turned and will head down over the next few weeks or so.
To the left is a partial view of the QQQ chart, which shows the CCI crossover to below 100, along with the stock dropping below $35.
--------
Posted by Ugly at 02:16 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
KSP is strong in a strong sector.
SMTI is strong in a weak sector.
Buying QQQ puts today was jumping the gun, but I still think it will pay off. I bought in anticipation of a move instead of waiting for the move to start. As long as I keep my risk under control, I will be okay. Risk control is the safety net that you always need to have so that it doesn't kill you if you fall.
My kickball team, Rubber Toe, beat the first place team, Prison Rules, 14-7. It was great because:
1) they were first place and undefeated
2) they had a team of 14 players, while we had only 9
3) they harrassed us and called us names the whole game
It was a sweet, sweet victory.
P.S. thank you to whoever is clicking the ads. I was able to make $1.73 in the last three days after a long dry spell of only $0.90 in 18 days. As you can see, I am making absolutely nothing from Google Adsense.
--------
Posted by Ugly at 01:19 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
I have read about it and I have also done it - one of the best ways to lose money is to be absolutely convinced about your trade. If you start to think that your trade is a guaranteed winner, then make sure to remember that this is one of the best ways to lose money. You must remember that a trade can always go either way.
--------
Posted by Ugly at 03:13 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Maybe I jumped the gun, but it was too tempting. I will probably sell them if the QQQ goes over $36, because I don't think it will.
--------
Posted by Ugly at 02:35 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
SIMC shows strength in a weak sector.
The QQQ has resistance at its 200dma of 35.81 yet still has not crossed below CCI 100.
The DJIA, however, looks like it has turned as it crosses below CCI 0. It seems like a good short now. The volume kick on Friday must have been the big guys shorting.
So I am interested in the DIA October 102 puts.
NOBH is breaking out.
--------
Posted by Ugly at 01:34 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
After waiting a few months for my library reserve of City of God to arrive at my local branch, I finally got it and saw it this weekend. It was worth the wait. I had no idea it was going to be a gangster movie.
I also saw On the Beach.
As you may notice, I only watch the best movies. You should watch the best movies first or you may not have a chance to watch them at all. Thoreau said the same thing about books.
How do I know which ones are best without having already seen them? I rely almost entirely on two sources: Leonard Maltin and rottentomatoes.com
Posted by Ugly at 06:59 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
There it goes.
Was that the top?
I don't know, but it might be worth shorting if you keep a lid on your risk.
--------
Posted by Ugly at 01:59 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
I will sell at least some of my position.
--------
Posted by Ugly at 01:22 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
The Marince Transport sector, along with MCX, looks good.
RMI and PROG are at least worth watching.
COBZ looks okay.
How high can ELOS go?
It has been a bumpy ride, but AIRT continues to bounce off of its upward trend line.
TZOO can't go up forever, it will eventually drop and make some shorts rich.
If I had time, I would probably follow and trade these two more closely.
Neither the QQQ or the Nasdaq have dropped below CCI 100 yet.
Relatively large volume on the DJIA on Friday - what does it mean? Big guys shorting or big guys buying? If it goes down from here, they were shorting - up and they were buying. They are always right. I will watch the number 10390. The market needs volume to move up, but volume also marks tops.
--------
Posted by Ugly at 04:40 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
I have taken off the comments link for each post and created a discussion board instead. Its link is located under the "links" section to the left. Use this for comments, as I will monitor it instead.
Posted by Ugly at 05:04 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
If I were a financial adviser, I would tell you to buy some HBP before the close if you can - it looks good! new all time high*
*disclaimer: this is not a recommendation to buy or sell and I am not a financial adviser
--------
Posted by Ugly at 03:49 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
My pet peeve is when people post on internet discussion boards or blogs and say "methinks" or "me thinks" instead of "I think."
I just don't understand it. The only reason that I can imagine a person would do this is because they believe it makes them sound cool or something, when really it makes them sound really dorky. And not dorky in a good way, but dorky in a bad way.
Posted by Ugly at 01:39 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack
According to max pain analysis, the QQQ should close at $35 today.
--------
Posted by Ugly at 09:14 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
First, I ran 20 miles on Sunday and it was painful. My toe was fine.
Second, I was 3 for 3 with 3 runs in my kickball game on Tuesday and we won 9-4.
Third, I saw Norah Jones in concert last weekend, and not only is she and her band very unpretentious and down to earth, but she is so sexy.
I have added the link to the left which will list all of my completed trades. I just started it so there is only the NTES loss - notice that it was 5% of my total account value. That is 3% higher than I ever want to lose and I lost it because I did not stick to my rules.
I still own BGY and it is looking nice again, so I may add more. It has a beautiful chart, please click and take a look. I think the potential profit is very big, so you don't need a large position - especially because of its lack of liquidity.
ARLP looks great too. This looks good for the IRA.
The markets have been rallying for the last month and a half, yet are still down slightly for the year. They are looking very toppish right now, so I would be looking at your short candidates and think about adding to or initiating a position.
--------
Posted by Ugly at 01:41 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
In his book Investment Biker, Jim Rogers rides around the world with Tabitha. In his next book, Adventure Capitalist, Jim Rogers rides around the world with Paige.
Low volume, but something interested someone in HAXS
I don't usually trade anything under a $1 or any BB stock, but if I did, BZYR and GNSM look good.
$40 just has to be the top on NTES.
If you see the QQQ drop below $35, with its CCI crossing below 100 - know that I will be loading up on the puts.
GMK looks really good to buy.
Something seems to be going on with TSC.
CETV has not stopped going up for almost three years - why should it stop now? Even in the unlikely event that you buy it at the exact wrong time - you still have your stop to protect you.
I am taking a small break from stock market books to read the Da Vinci Code.
Posted by Ugly at 10:40 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
British scientists are working on a smelly robot that attracts flies and then digests them for power. This news could have some effect on the price of crude oil because more machinery could be developed to use less expensive flies for power.
I found this on craig's blog from craigslist.com, who in turn got it from slashdot.org
Posted by Ugly at 04:26 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Looks like the QQQ hit resistance yesterday at its 200 dma. So that is the line to watch for now, along with the CCI. The 200 dma is currently 35.81
--------
Posted by Ugly at 03:34 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
I am waiting for the QQQ to cross below CCI 100 before I short it or buy puts.
--------
Posted by Ugly at 10:26 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
It ran too much yesterday.
I am waiting for the markets to turn.
FLI looks good to buy and hold in your IRA, as does APA.
MED made a move - some of last year's best performers, which have dropped steadily this year, are now showing some life.
--------
Posted by Ugly at 08:58 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
I think the markets will turn soon. They haven't yet so I will wait until they do.
BGY looks ready to make a new high.
NTES has resistance at $37 - careful if it breaks it on the upside.
--------
Posted by Ugly at 01:51 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
The market has been strong for about the last month and was strong on Friday. The QQQ traded and closed above $35 on higher voume than usual for the last month.
The markets are still in a slight down trend since the beginning of the year, as you can see from the charts on the left. But there are always trends within trends. So, this downward trend since the beginning of the year could just be a correction in a large uptrend that started in 2003. And/or that uptrend could just be a correction in a larger downtrend that started in 2000. As a trend trader, you have to choose one of the trends to play, but be aware of them all. The time to trade is when one of the trends start to change. That is how to make the most profits (i.e. selling high and buying low, buying low and selling high).
The markets are trending up for the last month. I am watching for this trend to change and conform to and verify the larger down trend. When it gives us a signal that it is turning back down, we can load up on the short side. The Nasdaq and the QQQ haven't given us the signal yet - although the increased volume could be a hint. The DJIA looks like it may be turning.
The way to make the most profits is to wait for very obvious signals of a change in the trend and to minimize your risk on the trade by adjusting your position size and setting stops.
Any break in the down trend lines will signal that the trend since the beginning of the year is changing.
Although it is in a 10-year downtrend, the volume burst on Friday tells me that CECE could go up much more before it heads back down.
RGCO might be worth a look.
JQH looks good, but very low volume.
The double bottom on MOBI at $5 looks tradeable if you can get it around $7.50
--------
Posted by Ugly at 01:04 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
 | I skipped Japanese class and saw Shaun of the Dead tonight - it was worth it. It was a very funny movie - especially the first half. Even better that it was free, I saw it 3 weeks before its US release, and I got a free pin. |
I broke my toe, but I didn't want to go to the doctor because it takes a lot of time, I am training for a marathon and I don't want to be bothered with a cast or bandage, and it is just a toe (although my big toe). So I just taped it to the next toe and it seems to have healed nicely (although I still can't bend it).
Posted by Ugly at 01:22 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
NTES finally broke down through $35 and is a strong short.
As for the QQQ, it is up at its resistance but hasn't fallen back yet. I think it will, but options expire next Friday so they may try to close it at $34 on that day.
TZOO still goes up without me. Is it starting to look like a blow-off top? Yes. Trees don't grow to the sky and TZOO will make you a lot of money from the short side at some point. We just have to be patient. But, whatever you do, don't short it yet! There is no difference between being wrong and being too early in the market.
--------
Posted by Ugly at 04:08 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Someone is manipulating BHO and making lots of money doing so. It was up over 30% today on around 30,000 shares.
SDA looks good but it has really light volume and I might try to wait for a pullback.
--------
Posted by Ugly at 11:31 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Yesterday was an important day to study the volume advance charts because yesterday is when the big money players came back from vacation to put their money somewhere where it will be treated well. We want to follow their lead so ours will be treated well also.
Damn, TZOO. God damn. These are the kinds of stocks like TASR, that I noted when they first started breaking out and then I just watch and watch go up and up, but I never buy. It broke through $50 today - on its way to $100? I will only buy it if it is reversing back up from its trendline - but it is miles away from its trendline now.
AIRT went nuts, too. This one might be good to buy now. It looks like it reversed off of its trendline.
MAD actually looks really good. The sector is strong, too. It also has low float and large insider ownership. I just don't like its long term chart with all of the overhead resistance. But I bet it will continue up from here.
The QQQ is facing resistance at its 50dma and the $34-35 area, just as expected. I now expect it to make a clean drop below $34 sometime this week or so. Any significant trading above $35 and we may have to reconsider our stance.
Because of the destruction in Florida, home construction and building supply stocks like TOUS DEVC and HBP look good.
DECK makes its move - someone with money who just came back from vacation sees potential here.
Archipelago Holdings is going straight up since IPO.
I saw Garden State this weekend. It was pretty good, but it was also a little too pretentious for my taste. Plus, I think it was a little too over dramatic with the romance. However, I think it is worth seeing for its originality.
I rented the Five Deadly Venoms from the library - I am eager to see this one. My japanese and karate classes begin today.
Posted by Ugly at 01:02 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
I just finished reading Jim Rogers' Investment Biker and today I reserved his second book, Adventure Capitalist, at the library. Here is a taped interview with Jim about his travels around the world.
--------
Posted by Ugly at 05:05 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
I wouldn't be surprised to see it make a new all-time high very soon.
This chart looks perfect:
--------
Posted by Ugly at 03:25 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Looks like all the wall street vacationers came back to gap it up at the open so that they could sell it off the rest of the day.
--------
Posted by Ugly at 10:45 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Last night I dreamt that I had made a fortune on a trade. I bought a lot of HBP around the $3 range and it traded to $18 the next day and was on all the financial news. I felt great - relief, pride, etc... Then I woke up. I've had similar dreams many times.
Posted by Ugly at 10:36 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
There seems to be a growing distaste among Americans about the bipartisan political system. More and more people seem to agree that neither of these parties speak honestly for the people. However, most people think that they have no other option - you are either for Kerry or for Bush and you have to choose a side. But there is an alternative solution to the problem that may be very important if people can escape their own prejudices to the belief that you must get out there and "VOTE!" This article goes so far to say it is unpatriotic to vote.
Imagine what a patriotic thrill you would receive if, in the next presidential election, a mere 10 percent of the electorate, instead of the usual 50 percent or so, voted. The unconstitutional regime in Washington would be de-legitimized. Be Patriotic: Dont Vote by Thomas J. DiLorenzo
Posted by Ugly at 02:47 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
ATPG looks good.
The market should now tell us if it has really begun a down trend, or if it still would like to trade sideways this week. To be in the downtrend, the QQQ will not go much over $35, if at all. Even better, it will fall below $34 and stay there - bouncing off of upward resistance. On the other hand, if it trades over its 30-week moving average or near $36, then it will probably be back to the sideways trend.
Like I said before, us trend followers need an up or down trend. I would rather see the downside.
ADPI bounced off of its 30-week moving average - can it break $20?
TZOO is one hot stock that everyone is watching nowadays. It is not near its trendline now, but we have to remember to watch it when it gets close if we want to start a position or sell a position. You have to have patience, but it pays off.
--------
Posted by Ugly at 06:42 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
I read this article that says that Bin Laden will be caught.
What will happen to the markets? Well, I am not so sure. One thing I know for certain is that the market makers and specialists will make a shitload of money as they either gap it up and sell off or spike it up in the middle of the day. When the emotions run high and people start to panic buy or sell, they make the most money.
A lot of people are afraid to invest because of terrorism, so there may be a longer positive effect of catching him. However, this will do nothing to stop terrorism and the market will probably know it. Me - I will play it by the charts like always.
--------
Posted by Ugly at 04:41 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
If so, everything will be going as planned. I would expect it to drop further next week, based on the chart. The same also goes for NTES below $35.
--------
Posted by Ugly at 11:47 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Because I just got two free tickets to a special advance screeening of Shaun of the Dead - it looks great. I can't wait. I loved the original Dawn of the Dead.
Posted by Ugly at 11:33 AM | Comments (0) |