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« June 2004 |
Main
| August 2004 »
The market as a whole is a good indicator of whether it is a good time to buy or sell since most stocks follow the trend of the market. The same is true with sectors. I've been looking for a website that had a nice, easy-to-read list of sector charts but I haven't really been able to find what I was looking for. So I created my own - I think it will help me a lot.
After looking at this, the following sectors look good to buy:
Air Freight, Consumer Electronics, Distillers & Brewers, Food Products, Industrial Transportation, Internet Services, Land Transportation Equipment, Lodging, Marine Transport, Medical Products, Mining, Oil Companies Major, Oil Companies Secondary, Transportation Services, Trucking
You can also look for good sectors to short based on their chart breaking down. Like Softdrinks.
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Posted by Ugly at 08:36 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack
BGY did well again today. 2nd largest percent gain on the NYSE.
I'm in New Mexico until Wednesday for work, but I should still be able to find time to update this blog and keep track of the market.
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Posted by Ugly at 04:50 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
I think it is a good bet to buy with a stop order at your defined risk level. Buy an uptrending stock. Here are some to watch:
TNH , VIDE, ZEUS
Also, I'll try to check these later - anything on this list that is turning back up to make new highs is a good bet with the way the market looks now.
TMR has a slow and steady up trend - looks good for a retirement account or just to hold for years (as long as it doesn't break that trend)
watch these for shorting:
MVL ,ULBI
If anything unexpected happens, like a big drop and the market turns down and the QQQ breaks $34, start shorting. It is still a sideways market as long as the QQQ trades between $34 and $38, but it is at the bottom level of the side turning up.
I day traded AMXC today and made $200 - chump change - for hours of stress and stomach churning.
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Posted by Ugly at 10:48 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
On my lunch break I was walking around for some exercise and I saw this street musician playing guitar for some change. I walked around this loop a couple of times, dropping a dollar in once, before coming back to sit nearby to listen and watch. He never really sang anything or played anything and pretty much mumbled to himself like a crazy person. After watching him and the various interactions with people passing by I decided to go up and talk to him to figure out if he was crazy or just strange.
He said he wasn't a street person and that he had a regular job and a home. He then asked me if I wanted to play something (even though I did not tell him I played) and he pushed the guitar on me and wanted me to play.
So I told him I used to be a subway musician and then I played a few verses to Bob Dylan's "The Times They Are a Changin'" as a group tour of prospective University of Minnesota students walked by. Someone dropped in $0.35 and I asked him if it was mine. He said yes but I gave him $0.25 for the guitar rental fee.
He seemed like a pretty nice strange guy in his mid-to-late thirties.
When I told him I played in NYC, he said that he was once there on the Montel Williams show. He said his daughter called up and asked to be on the show and so he, his wife and daughter were flown out and paid to be on the show. He said he had blue hair at the time and was in a rock band with his wife.
I asked him what the show was about and he said it was children who were embarrassed by their parents. We laughed at that.
I said "See you around" and came back to my office cubicle and found this:
Posted by Ugly at 04:39 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Based on the market index charts, it looks like if you want to do anything then you should buy. At least for the short term. The markets look to go up for the next couple of weeks or so. Unless anything unexpected happens.
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Posted by Ugly at 10:48 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
so far...
Watch for shorting:
LCUT, LSCP, WBD
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Posted by Ugly at 11:59 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
The only people making money the last few days besides me and two or three other lucky people are the market makers and NYSE specialists. This roller coaster ride of a market is tough.
Watch $34 on the QQQ. A close below this would be a signal the market is going lower.
It is looking weak.
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Posted by Ugly at 10:52 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Maybe I should have named this blog "Snuggly Chart" instead.
It is looking like an interim bottom might have formed in the market. Although it could drop tomorrow and continue down. There wasn't great volume, which is a sign it could continue down. At any rate, I would feel comfortable placing a bet at this level. If you keep a tight stop, there is a good risk to reward ratio.
In a sideways market you can try buying the dips and shorting the rallies. It is not really my game. I would be more interested in buying an uptrending stock at the dips and selling only when it breaks its trend.
Some to watch:
GEHL, KMRT, KWK, TSO, URBN
For shorting - keep an eye on the previously mentioned list.
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Posted by Ugly at 11:02 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
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Posted by Ugly at 04:28 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
I don't know - we'll see what happens next. Every day is something new and exciting, isn't it?
I will initiate some short positions if there is a small rally in the market that turns back downward.
I don't feel really comfortable buying or selling right now, just watching at the moment.
Although BGY is doing great in this weak market. I own it.
Most people don't know it but tomato sauce is very good for your health. It has a lot of antioxidants and helps to prevent cancer.
I am slightly concerned that artifical intelligence trading systems will one day dominate the markets and take it away from humans. I am only slightly worried because it doesn't seem to be any sort of a problem yet. But what concerns me is that a computer is already better than the best human chess players.
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Posted by Ugly at 11:08 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
This turtle is not one of the other turtles that you might have heard about. By the way, turtletrader.com is a great site.
This quote from turtletrader.com defines my system nowadays:
If you trade on a definite trend following loss limiting-method, you can [trade] without taking a great deal of time from your regular business day. Since action is taken only when certain evidence is registered, you can spend a minute or two per [market] in the evening checking up on whether action-taking evidence is apparent, and then in one telephone call in the morning place or change any orders in accord with what is indicated. [Furthermore] a definite method, which at all times includes precise criteria for closing out one's losing trades promptly, avoids...emotionally unnerving indecision.
Richard Donchian
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Posted by Ugly at 12:26 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Some people think that nothing will really happen in the markets until the election - that the markets are waiting for the election.
That would seem to make sense, but I think it is best to play it by the chart and not assume anything.
Watch for shorting:
ALDN, AMED, BCSI, BIV, CALM, DECK, FHRX, GMAI, IPAR, KERX, LWAY, NMSS, NTES, PCYO, RADN, SWIR, TRMD
If IDSA drops below $10, it looks like a good short candidate.
Although the market is weak, if ACSEF can break $12.50, it looks good to buy. And IST is one strong mo-fo. HWG has too low of volume, but is strong and looks good.
Here is an ugly chart
I just finished an advanced reading copy of Cari Lynn's "Leg the Spread: A Woman's Adventures Inside the Trillion-Dollar Boys Club of Commodities Trading" The book tells you nothing about how to trade, but it does provide some interesting stories about traders on the floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. Maybe it would give more inspiration to women traders. But this book, along with Jim Rogers belief that investors should be buying commodities, has sparked my interest in commodities.
I am now reading Jim Rogers' "Investment Biker."
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Posted by Ugly at 12:51 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
First, I previously said that the point was not to make money, but the point was not to lose money. Let me clear that up a little. The point is obviously to make money. But the best way to make money is to concentrate on not losing money. Because the market is predictable in some ways and so unpredictable in others, a very important point is to limit your risk.
Second, here is more evidence that the market maker fucked me over on the trade I mentioned on Thursday:
1) How could he take back the trade so easily? If the trade were with another person - say a customer at E*Trade - wouldn't they be confused to see that their trade suddenly didn't happen?
2) If the ask was at 20.17 (to set off my stop market cover order) - then why did they fill at 19.89? My order said to buy them at the market ask price.
3) The market maker's reluctance to take back the order (because minutes later he had already bagged a nice profit)
4) Because my stop was at 20.16 and the ask is mysteriously at one penny above my stop and yet the stock closed the day before around $19 and continues to trade under $19 within a couple minutes of the open.
The market open is a good time to fuck you over. That's when they make the most. Also anytime after any substantial news that moves the market and they have an excuse to take out your stops. But this is not just paranoia. The market maker sold the shares that I bought that morning. I've had a couple of other trades before that were shady in the same way.
I have to look into trading with a direct access broker. It isn't as important when you are not day trading, but it still would be nice to have control of where your orders go. I would mostly only use them for stop orders, so I have to learn more about that.
I am also looking into trading currencies and commodities.
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Posted by Ugly at 08:26 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
$34 on the QQQ
and 9800-10000 on the DJIA
They are testing their support right now.
The Nasdaq looks as if it has broken down through its support. It hasn't completely played out yet, so we will see how it goes.
The Nasdaq has made new YTD lows, but the QQQ hasn't broken its March low and the DJIA hasn't broken its May low - yet.
I'd like to see them break because then at least we'd have an end to the sideways trend and it would be easier to make money.
The Nasdaq's chart looks less sideways and more down. I think since it lead the bull market last year, it will lead the decline.
I just want an up or down trend to play. I'd rather a down trend since I've already done the up trend thing last year. I want to test my down trend skills. Plus, almost anyone can make money in a bull market. So there isn't much challenge in that.
I saw Ordinary People again last night. The things I love about it are:
1) The setting (Midwest Autumn in the early eighties)
2) The beginning scene (trees)
3) The ending (father and son dialogue)
4) The likeable Conrad Jarrett
I was impressed that Robert Redford directed the movie.
This shows 1) why it is important to have a stop and 2) the psychological importance of round numbers (in this case $5).
Posted by Ugly at 04:00 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
You have to be paranoid in this game because they are all out to get you. Everyone plays to make money and where will the money come from if not from you? Plus a game as huge as this one is obviously going to be rigged in many different people's favor. But not ours. We are the chumps who they take it from.
The game is rigged in their favor, but even so, we can still win.
The Nasdaq made a new YTD low, while the QQQ and the DJIA did not. I consider it still a sideways market until they are all making new lows or if there is a clear breakout to the upside or a breakdown to the downside.
Watch for shorting:
AMED below $23
CALM, IPAR
NTES
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Posted by Ugly at 12:20 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
I logged on this morning to find that I was stopped out of a short position. But I looked at the high of the day and it was below my stop at 20.16. I called Ameritrade and supposedly the ask was one cent above my stop price, but the bid was over 2 dollars below this at 18.13! The guy at Ameritrade agreed that this was way too large of a spread and so he called the market maker but he said the market maker wouldn't budge to take back the order. So then he called some "higher ups" and they talked to the market maker and fixed it so that "it never happened."
Here are the morning trades:
07/22/04 10:21:41 19.000 19.000 19.000 100
07/22/04 10:18:51 19.030 19.030 19.030 100
07/22/04 10:00:20 19.020 19.000 19.000 400
07/22/04 09:58:22 19.100 19.100 19.100 100
07/22/04 09:54:04 19.500 19.500 19.500 700
07/22/04 09:52:32 19.430 19.380 19.430 300
07/22/04 09:31:33 19.890 19.870 19.870 200
Those were my 200 at 9:31:33 - now it never happened.
That fucker. Watch those goddamned market makers and specialists. See how they scam the public out of their money ALL THE TIME? For decades this has been going on.
It's not going to change anytime soon - so for now we just have to play it as part of the game. At least we can win it the honest way.
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Posted by Ugly at 11:03 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Watch for new YTD lows on the indexes this week or next.
The markets are giving back all the gains from yesterday - hold off on buying until we see where it wants to go.
By the way, today is Cat Stevens, Robin Williams, Don Knotts, Janet Reno, Jon Luvtiz, Ernest Hemingway and my birthday.
Posted by Ugly at 02:07 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Yes, I was stopped out of another two trades today. Don't worry, a few small losses are expected every now and then. As long as I keep them small, which I have been doing. I will put up charts soon.
Today was a good day for the markets. The QQQ seems to have reversed before breaking below $34. And the Nasdaq before 1865 and closed over 1900. It may be a good time to step up and buy. It looks pretty safe - as long as you have a tight stop - it looks like a good risk-to-reward ratio.
This has been a sideways market for the last six months - not a good market for us trend followers.
So ACGL is upgraded and the stock falls? Why? Because someone wanted to dump their shares to the public. At least that would be my guess.
LPSN is now under $2.50 - I made over $10,000 in one day on this guy and then ended up losing over $10,000 on it. That really pissed me off. I like my new system much better.
The whole "upgrade" "downgrade" thing with stocks is such a load of crap if you ask me. Actually, it is one of the most stupid things I can think of. I am sure there are many people scamming behind a lot of it.
Even if everyone who did it were totally honest, it would still make absolutely no sense whatsoever.
RE may be good for shorting - but careful with this sideways market.
If I won the lottery (but I never play it) and suddenly had $200 million - would I stop trading? No, in fact I would quit my job and trade more. I would work on passing up Warren Buffet.
Doesn't look like you can lose shorting JWL.
BGY looks good here (this is one I haven't been stopped out of yet).
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Posted by Ugly at 12:03 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
My most recently completed trade
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Posted by Ugly at 05:46 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
It seems like a lot of traders are taking a break from trading since the market turned down. They aren't as interested because it is not as easy to make money.
As long as they can take a break before losing all their profits, it seems like a smart thing to do.
If you only trade in a bull market, you will make it rich.
But if you love the markets and are still interested in it like me, keep playing with it but just be extra careful with your trades.
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Posted by Ugly at 11:07 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
HBP
For shorting:
AMIS, ASPT, AZPN, CTMI, ELON, GTXI, HANS, NFLX, PSUN, SYK, ZMH
SYK has a nice up trending long term chart, so be careful shorting it. The big drop last week makes it look weak technically (broken trendline) and it cut right past $50
NFLX I would try to short around $25, but you have to be careful with this one because it is a traders' stock. But I think this one is a good bet.
Watch HANS for now - I wouldn't short it yet, but when it is ready to die, I think it will die fast and hard. Probably a good short entry is right at its 50dma.
EVCI would probably be a good short if it breaks below $10
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Posted by Ugly at 05:33 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Too many mosquitoes.
And it rained and my sleeping bag got wet.
Backpacking is okay, but not for a relaxing vacation.
Although I did hear some wolves howling.
Now it looks like a good time to switch to almost completely shorting the market. Especially if the Nasdaq breaks below 1865.4 (which it looks like it is going to do) and the QQQ below 34.
Congratulations to everyone who shorted NTES around $35 - I had an order for 34.99 but took it off. I wouldn't be surprised to see NTES go back to $10 or below.
What do you do in your retirement account when the only good plays are short? I don't know - maybe buy the Swiss Franc?
HBP, the stock I sold for a profit because it broke its trendline recently
announced good earnings and made another all-time high. But I
have to remind myself that the key is not to make money - the key is to not lose money.
The more I think about it, the more Napoleon Dynamite is growing on me.
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Posted by Ugly at 07:52 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
BNSO, DVS, NICH, WLC
Making money in this market is a frustratingly slow thing to do.
I saw "Napolean Dynamite" - that was pretty good. He plays a good nerd, but I was slightly disappointed with some of the other sub-plots (e.g. his brother).
I also saw "Street of Shame" - now that was a great movie. Sad - I cried.
The stock market is fun, but the important thing is inner happiness. To acheive this, you have to be compassionate.
I am going camping until Sunday on the north shore of Lake Superior. See you later.
Posted by Ugly at 01:37 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
ARKR, ESLT, GYRO, NAT, NFX, OMM, RMCF, SMIT, XTO
For shorting:
CTMI
MUR, XOM are more examples of those types of stocks that you need to find for your IRA - look at the all-time charts of these two.
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Posted by Ugly at 12:07 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Did you see SMIT today? Damn. I mentioned it here on Monday. I also mentioned SYM Monday and it did great this week. CAW, which I mentioned last night did well today.
And I don't just look for a one-week swing trade with these picks, I look for a longer-term trend.
CPI, another one I mentioned last night had a volume of 0 today. That is pretty thin. If you are going to buy, one share might be too much - you may have trouble getting out. You may want to slowly scale into one or two shares over a period of a few months.
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Posted by Ugly at 04:14 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
1) You can have another job. This takes away the pressure of needing to make money from trading to survive. You always have your job to fall back on if you fail. It is easier to trade and think more clearly without the pressure.
2) There is less of a chance of getting screwed by price manipulation. By playing the major, longer term moves you will mostly get stopped out when you should be getting stopped out.
3) It is less stressful and more automated (i.e. less chance for you to screw yourself). You have you orders in and if they go off, they go off where you wanted them to go off. There is not as much second guessing because you have already clearly thought over your situation and orders the night before.
4) You are following the money and not the excited traders. If you follow the big-money investors - the ones who know they will be rewarded - you should be rewarded too. If you trade to the excitement of the crowd or the day traders, your reward is less certain.
The tempting things about day trading are:
1) the excitement
2) the desire to make a lot of money quickly
Basically, you have to find what works best for you.
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Posted by Ugly at 03:36 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Look at the all-time charts for these stocks - these are the types of stocks you want in an IRA account:
AVP, BMET, BR
Also for buying:
BTU, CAW, CPI, SMHG
For shorting:
AGCC, AIM, CDL, FLML, NTES, TPTI
You've probably noticed some of these watchables have very low volume. You have to adjust your position size accordingly and sometimes it just isn't worth it.
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Posted by Ugly at 01:43 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
My recently completed trade
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Posted by Ugly at 05:23 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
My recently completed trade
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Posted by Ugly at 05:06 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
I will post more details later. This one was in my Roth IRA account.
With this market, you must only place small bets - especially on the long side. Once I see the 30-week moving averages start to decline on the DJIA and Nasdaq charts, I will only short sell in my trading account. I may try a trade on the long side if the chart looks great, but it will be in my Roth IRA account.
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Posted by Ugly at 03:04 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
I will post a chart later today with the details of this trade.
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Posted by Ugly at 10:22 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
I forgot to mention another unhealthy habit in my life - I eat too much salt.
CRZO, JUNO, SMIT, SYM, USLM, WSTF
For shorting:
FRSH, IPAR, PRPX, TRU, TU
Posted by Ugly at 01:33 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Don't worry, I will also post my bad trades. I will post every trade once it is complete. And I am about to be stopped out of one. For my good trades, I will say what I think I did that was good and for my bad ones I will say where I think I screwed up.
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Posted by Ugly at 12:46 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
APO, BGY, CRDN, FRD, MFI, PHRM
For Shorting:
CHPC, ELX, IPAS, PCLE, SYPR, WCI
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Posted by Ugly at 12:24 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
ADS, DXR, RFIL
For shorting:
GTK, LEXR
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Posted by Ugly at 12:04 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack