Comments on: One Quintillion Zimbabwe Dollars on inspectd.com http://www.uglychart.com/2008/03/27/one-quintillion-zimbabwe-dollars-on-inspectdcom/ Beauty is in the eye of the shareholder Tue, 07 Oct 2008 20:31:38 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.6.1 By: uglychart.com: a blog about stocks » Blog Archive » I am accused of cheating on inspectd.com http://www.uglychart.com/2008/03/27/one-quintillion-zimbabwe-dollars-on-inspectdcom/#comment-36392 uglychart.com: a blog about stocks » Blog Archive » I am accused of cheating on inspectd.com Fri, 11 Apr 2008 18:05:48 +0000 http://www.uglychart.com/2008/03/27/one-quintillion-zimbabwe-dollars-on-inspectdcom/#comment-36392 [...] I thought making the videos would prove that I did NOT cheat, but I guess not. It is a nice compliment, though. But I wish he would have phrased it like this: “I can’t believe anyone can be such a totally awesome trader and person that they would be able to make so much money on inspectd.com, so…” [...] [...] I thought making the videos would prove that I did NOT cheat, but I guess not. It is a nice compliment, though. But I wish he would have phrased it like this: “I can’t believe anyone can be such a totally awesome trader and person that they would be able to make so much money on inspectd.com, so…” [...]

]]> By: Ugly http://www.uglychart.com/2008/03/27/one-quintillion-zimbabwe-dollars-on-inspectdcom/#comment-36340 Ugly Tue, 01 Apr 2008 13:11:11 +0000 http://www.uglychart.com/2008/03/27/one-quintillion-zimbabwe-dollars-on-inspectdcom/#comment-36340 Joe: good points - leverage would help and I would definitely exit many of those trades long before they fell by 30%+ And I've come to conclude that the average return of the DOW really plays no part in the argument that I was trying to make (i.e. TA works and the efficient market hypothesis is wrong). But I'm glad oracle brought it up because the power of compounding does make my results (now up to $30 quintillion) looks a lot more impressive than they really might be. Joe: good points - leverage would help and I would definitely exit many of those trades long before they fell by 30%+
And I’ve come to conclude that the average return of the DOW really plays no part in the argument that I was trying to make (i.e. TA works and the efficient market hypothesis is wrong).
But I’m glad oracle brought it up because the power of compounding does make my results (now up to $30 quintillion) looks a lot more impressive than they really might be.

]]> By: Joe http://www.uglychart.com/2008/03/27/one-quintillion-zimbabwe-dollars-on-inspectdcom/#comment-36334 Joe Mon, 31 Mar 2008 04:13:25 +0000 http://www.uglychart.com/2008/03/27/one-quintillion-zimbabwe-dollars-on-inspectdcom/#comment-36334 Oracle: 1) Leverage. More than one position can be held at any given time (in real trading), so the stats at inspectd.com are not entirely accurate. 2) Timeframe. For the sake of simplicity, the users (including Ugly) typically stick with 20- or 40-day trading periods. In real trading, I'm guessing that Ugly would exit those 30% losers far before they became such shit bags. Just sayin'... Oracle:

1) Leverage. More than one position can be held at any given time (in real trading), so the stats at inspectd.com are not entirely accurate.

2) Timeframe. For the sake of simplicity, the users (including Ugly) typically stick with 20- or 40-day trading periods. In real trading, I’m guessing that Ugly would exit those 30% losers far before they became such shit bags.

Just sayin’…

]]> By: Ugly http://www.uglychart.com/2008/03/27/one-quintillion-zimbabwe-dollars-on-inspectdcom/#comment-36322 Ugly Fri, 28 Mar 2008 21:04:18 +0000 http://www.uglychart.com/2008/03/27/one-quintillion-zimbabwe-dollars-on-inspectdcom/#comment-36322 If my calculations are correct, the DOW has returned an avg of 10.53% during this time period (1987-2007), while my annual yield on inspectd.com would be 11.8%. If my calculations are correct, the DOW has returned an avg of 10.53% during this time period (1987-2007), while my annual yield on inspectd.com would be 11.8%.

]]> By: Ugly http://www.uglychart.com/2008/03/27/one-quintillion-zimbabwe-dollars-on-inspectdcom/#comment-36321 Ugly Fri, 28 Mar 2008 20:58:03 +0000 http://www.uglychart.com/2008/03/27/one-quintillion-zimbabwe-dollars-on-inspectdcom/#comment-36321 Oracle: that's interesting, maybe you are right. It's worth looking into anyway. But <a href="http://ezinearticles.com/?DJIA---Historical-Performance-of-the-Dow-Jones-Industrial-Average&id=699353" rel="nofollow">from what I've read</a>, the DOW returns 10.83% on average - which would mean that I've outperformed it by over $10 quintillion (I'm now up to $11,379,622,032,100,000,000.00). I guess the more appropriate way would be to find the rate of the DOW from 1987-2007, which is the time period of the charts on inspectd.com, and compare. Oracle: that’s interesting, maybe you are right. It’s worth looking into anyway. But from what I’ve read, the DOW returns 10.83% on average - which would mean that I’ve outperformed it by over $10 quintillion (I’m now up to $11,379,622,032,100,000,000.00). I guess the more appropriate way would be to find the rate of the DOW from 1987-2007, which is the time period of the charts on inspectd.com, and compare.

]]> By: Oracle http://www.uglychart.com/2008/03/27/one-quintillion-zimbabwe-dollars-on-inspectdcom/#comment-36320 Oracle Fri, 28 Mar 2008 20:40:29 +0000 http://www.uglychart.com/2008/03/27/one-quintillion-zimbabwe-dollars-on-inspectdcom/#comment-36320 I was a believer in TA till I started trading on Inspectd.com and saw your profile as the best trader their. You have actually proved that TA does not work. You have traded 70,120 days on the market and since there are roughly 250 trading days in the market this means you have traded for a total length of 280 years. Compounding for 280 years with 12.8 percent which is the average yearly return of DOW your account would have been worth 303868671812220900000. A DOW index fund would have over performed you 68 times to 1, my friend. Stop wasting your time I was a believer in TA till I started trading on Inspectd.com and saw your profile as the best trader their. You have actually proved that TA does not work. You have traded 70,120 days on the market and since there are roughly 250 trading days in the market this means you have traded for a total length of 280 years. Compounding for 280 years with 12.8 percent which is the average yearly return of DOW your account would have been worth 303868671812220900000. A DOW index fund would have over performed you 68 times to 1, my friend. Stop wasting your time

]]> By: happyweasel http://www.uglychart.com/2008/03/27/one-quintillion-zimbabwe-dollars-on-inspectdcom/#comment-36319 happyweasel Fri, 28 Mar 2008 19:48:46 +0000 http://www.uglychart.com/2008/03/27/one-quintillion-zimbabwe-dollars-on-inspectdcom/#comment-36319 Well, Zimbabwe VOTES tomorrow. Good luck to everyone but ZANU-PF; the people need good fortune more than a solid currency. Crush Mugabe Well, Zimbabwe VOTES tomorrow. Good luck to everyone but ZANU-PF; the people need good fortune more than a solid currency.
Crush Mugabe

]]> By: sam sanders http://www.uglychart.com/2008/03/27/one-quintillion-zimbabwe-dollars-on-inspectdcom/#comment-36318 sam sanders Fri, 28 Mar 2008 02:58:50 +0000 http://www.uglychart.com/2008/03/27/one-quintillion-zimbabwe-dollars-on-inspectdcom/#comment-36318 Congrats, Mike. Jason: the charts are randomly selected from 1987-2007. Congrats, Mike. Jason: the charts are randomly selected from 1987-2007.

]]> By: Jason Coleman http://www.uglychart.com/2008/03/27/one-quintillion-zimbabwe-dollars-on-inspectdcom/#comment-36315 Jason Coleman Thu, 27 Mar 2008 23:14:23 +0000 http://www.uglychart.com/2008/03/27/one-quintillion-zimbabwe-dollars-on-inspectdcom/#comment-36315 Nice work. I've been thinking about this some. Now, take into account that I am a "believer"... i.e. I think TA works. I wonder over what time frame Inspectd got their charts. I thought about doing something like this, and I was just going to use historic prices to create my own charts. But it looks like Inspectd scraped AOL to save the images. (Unless you can create these kind of historic charts on the fly at AOL, but I couldn't see where/how.) So they must have gathered the charts over the past x years or so. What if the charts are from 2003-2007, when the S&P was up 60%, about 13% compounded annually? You'd get above average returns with a buy strategy. Even so, 100k compounded annually at 13% would turn into only $174m in 100 years. I think you trounced that number pretty good in your first 100 "years" of Inspectd trades. I'm also thinking about all the skipping. What if you are skipping all of those setups that occurred in bear markets or average years and then you just trade the setups that are in obvious big bull markets. Well, I don't think that denies your evidence against EMT. Because you're showing that a strategy of waiting for obvious bull markets can work... ... or can it? ... I don't know the ratio off hand but we're not in a bull market 100% of the time. So with Inspectd, you get to trade a bull market (or setup really) 100% of the time whereas in real life you'd have to wait a bit... and would lose more equity due to inflation, etc. I'm not trying to shoot you down. As you've said numerous times... there are numerous reasons this isn't a direct analogy of real world trading. However, I think it's a good exercise to wonder "why can't we do this well in real life?" Once I got past the obvious things, and then some of the not so obvious things, I found I was thinking about the market in a new way. And learning. When I get some time, I'm going to blog about this some over at IG. Write up a timeline. You should be on CNN/CNBC. I think this is a big deal too. And interesting. If you're not already, let's get you on TV. Nice work.

I’ve been thinking about this some. Now, take into account that I am a “believer”… i.e. I think TA works.

I wonder over what time frame Inspectd got their charts. I thought about doing something like this, and I was just going to use historic prices to create my own charts. But it looks like Inspectd scraped AOL to save the images. (Unless you can create these kind of historic charts on the fly at AOL, but I couldn’t see where/how.)

So they must have gathered the charts over the past x years or so. What if the charts are from 2003-2007, when the S&P was up 60%, about 13% compounded annually? You’d get above average returns with a buy strategy.

Even so, 100k compounded annually at 13% would turn into only $174m in 100 years. I think you trounced that number pretty good in your first 100 “years” of Inspectd trades.

I’m also thinking about all the skipping. What if you are skipping all of those setups that occurred in bear markets or average years and then you just trade the setups that are in obvious big bull markets.

Well, I don’t think that denies your evidence against EMT. Because you’re showing that a strategy of waiting for obvious bull markets can work…

… or can it? … I don’t know the ratio off hand but we’re not in a bull market 100% of the time. So with Inspectd, you get to trade a bull market (or setup really) 100% of the time whereas in real life you’d have to wait a bit… and would lose more equity due to inflation, etc.

I’m not trying to shoot you down. As you’ve said numerous times… there are numerous reasons this isn’t a direct analogy of real world trading. However, I think it’s a good exercise to wonder “why can’t we do this well in real life?” Once I got past the obvious things, and then some of the not so obvious things, I found I was thinking about the market in a new way. And learning.

When I get some time, I’m going to blog about this some over at IG. Write up a timeline. You should be on CNN/CNBC. I think this is a big deal too. And interesting. If you’re not already, let’s get you on TV.

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