Comments on: The Great AI & Trading Debate Continues http://www.uglychart.com/2007/11/03/the-great-ai-trading-debate-continues/ Beauty is in the eye of the shareholder Tue, 14 Oct 2008 18:31:21 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.6.1 By: Trading Goddess http://www.uglychart.com/2007/11/03/the-great-ai-trading-debate-continues/#comment-34932 Trading Goddess Mon, 05 Nov 2007 05:44:11 +0000 http://www.uglychart.com/2007/11/03/the-great-ai-trading-debate-continues/#comment-34932 Isn't the thought of what the world will be like in 50 years simply amazing? *dreamy* Isn’t the thought of what the world will be like in 50 years simply amazing?

*dreamy*

]]> By: Worry About Your Neighbor’s Computer :: Move the Markets :: Entries :: http://www.uglychart.com/2007/11/03/the-great-ai-trading-debate-continues/#comment-34930 Worry About Your Neighbor’s Computer :: Move the Markets :: Entries :: Sun, 04 Nov 2007 18:40:30 +0000 http://www.uglychart.com/2007/11/03/the-great-ai-trading-debate-continues/#comment-34930 [...] Also feel free to leave either agreeing or disagreeing comments below. I certainly don’t have a lock on the future. The more the merrier. It’s fun to imagine the future of technology when the discussion is genuine and light-hearted. Last time, it got to the point that I sat through comments deconstructing my word choices. I will try my best not to participate in that level of discussion again–it frustrates and brings out the worst in me. Let’s try to be civil, and intelligent, this time. Thanks. [...] [...] Also feel free to leave either agreeing or disagreeing comments below. I certainly don’t have a lock on the future. The more the merrier. It’s fun to imagine the future of technology when the discussion is genuine and light-hearted. Last time, it got to the point that I sat through comments deconstructing my word choices. I will try my best not to participate in that level of discussion again–it frustrates and brings out the worst in me. Let’s try to be civil, and intelligent, this time. Thanks. [...]

]]> By: Ugly http://www.uglychart.com/2007/11/03/the-great-ai-trading-debate-continues/#comment-34928 Ugly Sun, 04 Nov 2007 18:19:53 +0000 http://www.uglychart.com/2007/11/03/the-great-ai-trading-debate-continues/#comment-34928 <a href="http://www.kiplinger.com/columns/fundwatch/archive/2006/fundwatch1218.htm" rel="nofollow">Here is another article about successful computer trading</a>. I pulled these from <a href="http://del.icio.us/ca98am792/quant" rel="nofollow">my delicious links tagged with "quant."</a> Here is another article about successful computer trading. I pulled these from my delicious links tagged with “quant.”

]]> By: Ugly http://www.uglychart.com/2007/11/03/the-great-ai-trading-debate-continues/#comment-34927 Ugly Sun, 04 Nov 2007 18:15:29 +0000 http://www.uglychart.com/2007/11/03/the-great-ai-trading-debate-continues/#comment-34927 denarii: here is just a short list off the top of my head: fatkat, renaissance, de shaw <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2006/11/24/business/24trading.html?ei=5088&en=d845c995c6e1f365&ex=1322024400&adxnnl=1&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss&adxnnlx=1164585677-fl6XmXIgSYyNzDLjBENgEg" rel="nofollow">Here is a NYtimes article about it</a>: "Artificial intelligence is becoming so deeply integrated into our economic ecostructure that some day computers will exceed human intelligence," Mr. Kurzweil tells a room of investors who oversee enormous pools of capital. "Machines can observe billions of market transactions to see patterns we could never see." All the reasons you give for computers never being able to do as well as humans are reasons why I think humans will not be as good as computers. I think the computers will better be able to adapt to these changes. denarii: here is just a short list off the top of my head: fatkat, renaissance, de shaw
Here is a NYtimes article about it:
“Artificial intelligence is becoming so deeply integrated into our economic ecostructure that some day computers will exceed human intelligence,” Mr. Kurzweil tells a room of investors who oversee enormous pools of capital. “Machines can observe billions of market transactions to see patterns we could never see.”
All the reasons you give for computers never being able to do as well as humans are reasons why I think humans will not be as good as computers. I think the computers will better be able to adapt to these changes.

]]> By: Denarii http://www.uglychart.com/2007/11/03/the-great-ai-trading-debate-continues/#comment-34926 Denarii Sun, 04 Nov 2007 17:08:24 +0000 http://www.uglychart.com/2007/11/03/the-great-ai-trading-debate-continues/#comment-34926 Ugly - can you explain how these computers are going to trade? you should be able to produce a list of where computers are better traders than humans - I agree with patterns but patterns keep changing in different ways - risk arb yes there is an area - taking avantage of curreny changes on like stocks traded in different places. Buy and sell programs based on futures but the more computers are used for that then the fewer profits the computers can make. But are you saying then a computer will figure out the price GOOG should be trading at and not let it move from that price until it figures out the next price GOOG should be at. Again - Chess, Poker and Checkers - in those games the rules never change and the rules are limited. In the markets, you have humans changing the playing field all the time - wars, inventions, and taxes just to name a few. Ugly - can you explain how these computers are going to trade? you should be able to produce a list of where computers are better traders than humans - I agree with patterns but patterns keep changing in different ways - risk arb yes there is an area - taking avantage of curreny changes on like stocks traded in different places. Buy and sell programs based on futures but the more computers are used for that then the fewer profits the computers can make.

But are you saying then a computer will figure out the price GOOG should be trading at and not let it move from that price until it figures out the next price GOOG should be at.

Again - Chess, Poker and Checkers - in those games the rules never change and the rules are limited. In the markets, you have humans changing the playing field all the time - wars, inventions, and taxes just to name a few.

]]> By: Ugly http://www.uglychart.com/2007/11/03/the-great-ai-trading-debate-continues/#comment-34925 Ugly Sun, 04 Nov 2007 14:44:19 +0000 http://www.uglychart.com/2007/11/03/the-great-ai-trading-debate-continues/#comment-34925 Traders should be aware that their jobs are being taken over by computers. This is already happening today. And it is my opinion that traders jobs - making money in the markets - will only become more difficult as smarter and smarter computers begin competing for the same money. Traders should be aware that their jobs are being taken over by computers. This is already happening today. And it is my opinion that traders jobs - making money in the markets - will only become more difficult as smarter and smarter computers begin competing for the same money.

]]> By: Ugly http://www.uglychart.com/2007/11/03/the-great-ai-trading-debate-continues/#comment-34923 Ugly Sun, 04 Nov 2007 14:01:41 +0000 http://www.uglychart.com/2007/11/03/the-great-ai-trading-debate-continues/#comment-34923 Hermann: enough about my ego, man. It's really annoying. Since you still haven't noticed, this discussion has nothing to do with who is right and who is wrong. I've said many times that this is what I think will happen - it is MY OPINION. It is also my opinion that this really has to do with your ego. Hermann: enough about my ego, man. It’s really annoying. Since you still haven’t noticed, this discussion has nothing to do with who is right and who is wrong. I’ve said many times that this is what I think will happen - it is MY OPINION. It is also my opinion that this really has to do with your ego.

]]> By: Hermann http://www.uglychart.com/2007/11/03/the-great-ai-trading-debate-continues/#comment-34922 Hermann Sun, 04 Nov 2007 12:42:34 +0000 http://www.uglychart.com/2007/11/03/the-great-ai-trading-debate-continues/#comment-34922 Oh, man the quotes get even worse. People that knew a little about computers and those domains at that time knew that both problems, calculus and chess could be solved with enough processing power. I have to agree with Tyro. Just because some people were wrong (but you knew it before) turned out to be right, doesn't mean people can just be wrong and expect it to turn out differently. What is to be solved in the markets? That's comparing apples to, äh, a refrigerator. The goal of most speculators is to make money in any way they can. And they can do it because there are patterns in the markets. No matter who is trading, computers or humans, there will always be patterns in the markets when people or computers do the same thing. Does that make sense? If somebody always does the same thing, s/he becomes predictable. Doesn't matter whether that are humans or trading programs (which are written by humans by the way). Ugly you have still failed to be specific and answer any of the valid questions by Tyro. All you say, "somebody said this too" and that's why I am right. Compare this discussion to trading. You're listening to "Tips", you can't accept that you're wrong, because your ego needs to be right and your reasoning seems to come from emotions, and not your brain. Oh, man the quotes get even worse. People that knew a little about computers and those domains at that time knew that both problems, calculus and chess could be solved with enough processing power. I have to agree with Tyro. Just because some people were wrong (but you knew it before) turned out to be right, doesn’t mean people can just be wrong and expect it to turn out differently.
What is to be solved in the markets? That’s comparing apples to, äh, a refrigerator. The goal of most speculators is to make money in any way they can. And they can do it because there are patterns in the markets. No matter who is trading, computers or humans, there will always be patterns in the markets when people or computers do the same thing. Does that make sense? If somebody always does the same thing, s/he becomes predictable. Doesn’t matter whether that are humans or trading programs (which are written by humans by the way).
Ugly you have still failed to be specific and answer any of the valid questions by Tyro. All you say, “somebody said this too” and that’s why I am right.
Compare this discussion to trading. You’re listening to “Tips”, you can’t accept that you’re wrong, because your ego needs to be right and your reasoning seems to come from emotions, and not your brain.

]]> By: Richard http://www.uglychart.com/2007/11/03/the-great-ai-trading-debate-continues/#comment-34921 Richard Sun, 04 Nov 2007 05:13:06 +0000 http://www.uglychart.com/2007/11/03/the-great-ai-trading-debate-continues/#comment-34921 If I am upset with anyone, it is myself. I would like to be able to help you, Tyro, but I just do not have the patience to deal with you. I am sorry for that. If I am upset with anyone, it is myself. I would like to be able to help you, Tyro, but I just do not have the patience to deal with you. I am sorry for that.

]]> By: Tyro http://www.uglychart.com/2007/11/03/the-great-ai-trading-debate-continues/#comment-34920 Tyro Sun, 04 Nov 2007 03:25:02 +0000 http://www.uglychart.com/2007/11/03/the-great-ai-trading-debate-continues/#comment-34920 @Ugly - Yes, I suspect that we'll see automation come in many forms and the big trading desks at some mutual funds or hedge funds may slim down, replaced by trading bots and so yes, the results that the computer gets will rival humans close enough so that it won't be worth <i>employing</i> humans. My bet is that the computers will be there to manage large buy/sell orders, but it will be human analysts or customers placing the orders. There will also be programs which carry out automated trading on behalf of individuals or maybe funds. These are already in place, and will just keep booming. What I can't envision is a change which would render traders like us - self-employed, discretionary traders as opposed to firm traders - any less viable. What <i>could</i> change, no matter how powerful the computers? The only catastrophe I can think of for us would be the complete death of volatility, but I don't see how that would happen because of computer trading. What else do you think could happen, and how would automated trading bring this about? @Richard - sorry you're upset, that wasn't my intent. Even setting aside the issue of calculus, just because some people turned out to be right doesn't mean you will be. People who say things which are generally thought to be wrong, usually are wrong, that's why we gather evidence to defend our position. Nothing personal. @Ugly - Yes, I suspect that we’ll see automation come in many forms and the big trading desks at some mutual funds or hedge funds may slim down, replaced by trading bots and so yes, the results that the computer gets will rival humans close enough so that it won’t be worth employing humans. My bet is that the computers will be there to manage large buy/sell orders, but it will be human analysts or customers placing the orders. There will also be programs which carry out automated trading on behalf of individuals or maybe funds. These are already in place, and will just keep booming.

What I can’t envision is a change which would render traders like us - self-employed, discretionary traders as opposed to firm traders - any less viable. What could change, no matter how powerful the computers?

The only catastrophe I can think of for us would be the complete death of volatility, but I don’t see how that would happen because of computer trading. What else do you think could happen, and how would automated trading bring this about?

@Richard - sorry you’re upset, that wasn’t my intent. Even setting aside the issue of calculus, just because some people turned out to be right doesn’t mean you will be. People who say things which are generally thought to be wrong, usually are wrong, that’s why we gather evidence to defend our position. Nothing personal.

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