Comments on: Richard’s post on AI and trading http://www.uglychart.com/2007/11/03/richards-post-on-ai-and-trading/ Beauty is in the eye of the shareholder Mon, 06 Oct 2008 13:42:24 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.6.1 By: Worry About Your Neighbor’s Computer :: Move the Markets :: Entries :: http://www.uglychart.com/2007/11/03/richards-post-on-ai-and-trading/#comment-34929 Worry About Your Neighbor’s Computer :: Move the Markets :: Entries :: Sun, 04 Nov 2007 18:30:42 +0000 http://www.uglychart.com/2007/11/03/richards-post-on-ai-and-trading/#comment-34929 [...] But, Ugly came out almost right away to remind me about the likelihood of eventual computer trading agents that surpass humans in trading ability. They way software tends to go, once that’s anywhere, it will be everywhere soon after. When the bar for the amateur trader is raised, you need to make sure you’re still on the right side of that bar! [...] [...] But, Ugly came out almost right away to remind me about the likelihood of eventual computer trading agents that surpass humans in trading ability. They way software tends to go, once that’s anywhere, it will be everywhere soon after. When the bar for the amateur trader is raised, you need to make sure you’re still on the right side of that bar! [...]

]]> By: Ugly http://www.uglychart.com/2007/11/03/richards-post-on-ai-and-trading/#comment-34924 Ugly Sun, 04 Nov 2007 14:38:30 +0000 http://www.uglychart.com/2007/11/03/richards-post-on-ai-and-trading/#comment-34924 eyal: but AI computers can compete with each other to make money, just as human hedge fund managers compete with each other today. And yes, I think that AI will not only take over the profession of trading, but of doctors, lawyers, pilots, etc... And I agree with you that we will have to merge with the technology in order to keep up. eyal: but AI computers can compete with each other to make money, just as human hedge fund managers compete with each other today.
And yes, I think that AI will not only take over the profession of trading, but of doctors, lawyers, pilots, etc… And I agree with you that we will have to merge with the technology in order to keep up.

]]> By: eyal http://www.uglychart.com/2007/11/03/richards-post-on-ai-and-trading/#comment-34919 eyal Sun, 04 Nov 2007 01:49:13 +0000 http://www.uglychart.com/2007/11/03/richards-post-on-ai-and-trading/#comment-34919 I'm with Richard on this. I think the day that computers will play a perfect stock market game will be the day the markets become obsolete. The pros need the masses to make money. Without the masses there's no game. Also if AI will get to the point it can trade better than any human than why not put it to work in every other situation? Is there any limit? Maybe they can be better doctors, lawyers, pilots, develop programs on their own, soldiers, generals, politicans..? Where do humans fit in all of this? There will have to be some evolution of humans to stay on top of all this or we'll all be running for the atomic shelters and away from terminators ;-) I’m with Richard on this. I think the day that computers will play a perfect stock market game will be the day the markets become obsolete. The pros need the masses to make money. Without the masses there’s no game.

Also if AI will get to the point it can trade better than any human than why not put it to work in every other situation? Is there any limit? Maybe they can be better doctors, lawyers, pilots, develop programs on their own, soldiers, generals, politicans..? Where do humans fit in all of this? There will have to be some evolution of humans to stay on top of all this or we’ll all be running for the atomic shelters and away from terminators ;-)

]]> By: Ugly http://www.uglychart.com/2007/11/03/richards-post-on-ai-and-trading/#comment-34914 Ugly Sat, 03 Nov 2007 20:40:36 +0000 http://www.uglychart.com/2007/11/03/richards-post-on-ai-and-trading/#comment-34914 Hermann: thank you for your comments Tyro: I'll try to put together a post explaining my complete logical reasoning behind my opinion. Hermann: thank you for your comments
Tyro: I’ll try to put together a post explaining my complete logical reasoning behind my opinion.

]]> By: Hermann http://www.uglychart.com/2007/11/03/richards-post-on-ai-and-trading/#comment-34913 Hermann Sat, 03 Nov 2007 19:04:02 +0000 http://www.uglychart.com/2007/11/03/richards-post-on-ai-and-trading/#comment-34913 Damn, i just read tyro's comments on richard's posts and I could not have described it better. He makes so many good points and he shows deep understanding of trading and the impact of technology. It would also have realized that it's time wasted fighting Ugly's ego-trip on how great this magical "technology" is in trading. Damn, i just read tyro’s comments on richard’s posts and I could not have described it better. He makes so many good points and he shows deep understanding of trading and the impact of technology. It would also have realized that it’s time wasted fighting Ugly’s ego-trip on how great this magical “technology” is in trading.

]]> By: Tyro http://www.uglychart.com/2007/11/03/richards-post-on-ai-and-trading/#comment-34912 Tyro Sat, 03 Nov 2007 18:58:05 +0000 http://www.uglychart.com/2007/11/03/richards-post-on-ai-and-trading/#comment-34912 I'm not saying that GAs or ant other kind of computer program can't make money. Of course they can and do. But their operation isn't magical, nor do computers limit any human trading except in computationally intense or extremely speed-critical situations like arbitrage. The quant houses employ hundreds of humans and try to find extremely thin opportunities which humans typically don't play in. Just how are quants supposed to be hurting humans? If there's logic and reason, what are your premises, what are your reasons? What exactly will be improved by computers - be specific? How will this improvement affect humans? You have no details, so just what are you applying your reason and logic to? I’m not saying that GAs or ant other kind of computer program can’t make money. Of course they can and do. But their operation isn’t magical, nor do computers limit any human trading except in computationally intense or extremely speed-critical situations like arbitrage. The quant houses employ hundreds of humans and try to find extremely thin opportunities which humans typically don’t play in. Just how are quants supposed to be hurting humans?

If there’s logic and reason, what are your premises, what are your reasons? What exactly will be improved by computers - be specific? How will this improvement affect humans? You have no details, so just what are you applying your reason and logic to?

]]> By: uglychart.com » Blog Archive » The Great AI & Trading Debate Continues http://www.uglychart.com/2007/11/03/richards-post-on-ai-and-trading/#comment-34911 uglychart.com » Blog Archive » The Great AI & Trading Debate Continues Sat, 03 Nov 2007 18:52:53 +0000 http://www.uglychart.com/2007/11/03/richards-post-on-ai-and-trading/#comment-34911 [...] Ugly: tyro: you don't think that GAs... [...] [...] Ugly: tyro: you don’t think that GAs… [...]

]]> By: Ugly http://www.uglychart.com/2007/11/03/richards-post-on-ai-and-trading/#comment-34910 Ugly Sat, 03 Nov 2007 18:24:23 +0000 http://www.uglychart.com/2007/11/03/richards-post-on-ai-and-trading/#comment-34910 tyro: you don't think that GAs can be used to make money in the markets? <a href="http://www.fatkat.com" rel="nofollow">It's happening right now</a>. From what I know, they are doing very well. Since the markets are competitive, this implies that other ways of trading (e.g. human trading) isn't doing as well. Right? Or am I missing something? Further, as technology and computing continues to improve exponentionally, can't we assume that these trading programs will drastically improve? It may sound like I am turning these into mystical objects of worship to you, but aren't all of my conclusion based on logic and reason? There is nothing mystical about it. tyro: you don’t think that GAs can be used to make money in the markets? It’s happening right now. From what I know, they are doing very well. Since the markets are competitive, this implies that other ways of trading (e.g. human trading) isn’t doing as well. Right? Or am I missing something? Further, as technology and computing continues to improve exponentionally, can’t we assume that these trading programs will drastically improve?
It may sound like I am turning these into mystical objects of worship to you, but aren’t all of my conclusion based on logic and reason? There is nothing mystical about it.

]]> By: Tyro http://www.uglychart.com/2007/11/03/richards-post-on-ai-and-trading/#comment-34909 Tyro Sat, 03 Nov 2007 18:03:51 +0000 http://www.uglychart.com/2007/11/03/richards-post-on-ai-and-trading/#comment-34909 Ugly, I posted a follow-up comment back on MtM. As for genetic algorithms, they're a good way of seaching a large solution space in a non-deterministic and loosely guided way, so of course it's likely to pick up some solutions that humans who are directional when seeking solutions would not find. I fail to see what any of this has to do with the markets. What is the solution space, what would the fitness criteria be, and how would it xualitatively change trading? Do you think that GAs will find the holy grail? What would such a thing even look like? I dunno, it sounds an awful lot like you've made "computers" and "AI" into some nearly mystical object of worship, free from limitations or details. Nothing personal, I just think you're wrong on this one. Ugly,

I posted a follow-up comment back on MtM.

As for genetic algorithms, they’re a good way of seaching a large solution space in a non-deterministic and loosely guided way, so of course it’s likely to pick up some solutions that humans who are directional when seeking solutions would not find. I fail to see what any of this has to do with the markets. What is the solution space, what would the fitness criteria be, and how would it xualitatively change trading? Do you think that GAs will find the holy grail? What would such a thing even look like?

I dunno, it sounds an awful lot like you’ve made “computers” and “AI” into some nearly mystical object of worship, free from limitations or details. Nothing personal, I just think you’re wrong on this one.

]]> By: Hermann http://www.uglychart.com/2007/11/03/richards-post-on-ai-and-trading/#comment-34908 Hermann Sat, 03 Nov 2007 16:56:57 +0000 http://www.uglychart.com/2007/11/03/richards-post-on-ai-and-trading/#comment-34908 Again, I disagree. But it doesn't matter, because what you say does not make any sense to me and what I say does not seem to make sense to you. Let's hear what other people think. Again, I disagree. But it doesn’t matter, because what you say does not make any sense to me and what I say does not seem to make sense to you. Let’s hear what other people think.

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