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	<title>Comments on: More on Polaris and the &#8220;First Man-Machine Poker Championship&#8221;</title>
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	<link>http://www.uglychart.com/2007/07/28/more-on-polaris-and-the-first-man-machine-poker-championship/</link>
	<description>Beauty is in the eye of the shareholder</description>
	<pubDate>Fri, 21 Nov 2008 19:44:19 +0000</pubDate>
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		<title>By: uglychart.com &#187; Blog Archive &#187; Richard&#8217;s post on AI and trading</title>
		<link>http://www.uglychart.com/2007/07/28/more-on-polaris-and-the-first-man-machine-poker-championship/#comment-34900</link>
		<dc:creator>uglychart.com &#187; Blog Archive &#187; Richard&#8217;s post on AI and trading</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 03 Nov 2007 09:47:05 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.uglychart.com/2007/07/28/more-on-polaris-and-the-first-man-machine-poker-championship/#comment-34900</guid>
		<description>[...] Richard says he is not worried about computers that can trade. Others have told me they aren&#8217;t worried either - they believe there will always be ways for a human to make money in the markets. They could be right, but I don&#8217;t think so. I think it is only a matter of time before even the best human traders (without the help of AI) cannot make consistent profits in the market. Here is a comment I just added to his post: Basically it comes down to this: computers are getting smarter and smarter. Not just in a brute-force way - they are getting more intuitive and creative. They are really becoming smarter, with pattern-recognition capabilities that are beginning to rival those of humans. Eventually they will be the best traders. Trading is a lot like poker, and look at the progress of poker-playing AI. I think it is important for traders to watch this progress in poker. When computers dominate poker, as they now do chess, it will be more clear as to how they will also dominate the market. I don&#8217;t think even the best unassisted human brain will be enough to compete with this AI in 10 years. I think it will be like playing Deep Blue. Over time it will just be better and take your money. Why is it so hard for traders to make money in the markets today? Because it is competitive, we all can&#8217;t win, and there are really smart, good traders to compete with. Smart AI is currently and will continue to be a growing part of this competition. [...]</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] Richard says he is not worried about computers that can trade. Others have told me they aren&#8217;t worried either - they believe there will always be ways for a human to make money in the markets. They could be right, but I don&#8217;t think so. I think it is only a matter of time before even the best human traders (without the help of AI) cannot make consistent profits in the market. Here is a comment I just added to his post: Basically it comes down to this: computers are getting smarter and smarter. Not just in a brute-force way - they are getting more intuitive and creative. They are really becoming smarter, with pattern-recognition capabilities that are beginning to rival those of humans. Eventually they will be the best traders. Trading is a lot like poker, and look at the progress of poker-playing AI. I think it is important for traders to watch this progress in poker. When computers dominate poker, as they now do chess, it will be more clear as to how they will also dominate the market. I don&#8217;t think even the best unassisted human brain will be enough to compete with this AI in 10 years. I think it will be like playing Deep Blue. Over time it will just be better and take your money. Why is it so hard for traders to make money in the markets today? Because it is competitive, we all can&#8217;t win, and there are really smart, good traders to compete with. Smart AI is currently and will continue to be a growing part of this competition. [...]</p>
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		<title>By: jake</title>
		<link>http://www.uglychart.com/2007/07/28/more-on-polaris-and-the-first-man-machine-poker-championship/#comment-31547</link>
		<dc:creator>jake</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 01 Aug 2007 03:14:51 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.uglychart.com/2007/07/28/more-on-polaris-and-the-first-man-machine-poker-championship/#comment-31547</guid>
		<description>Joe: I agree that alot of the time players rely on patterns and odds when they have no other read and alot of players rely on it almost all the time, also if their read is questionable or nonexistant knowing the previous play can help make a decision.

But body language and instinct for many players is a big part of the game. Phil Helmuth (who has one WSOP bracelet more than Chan :-) ) has a number of specific reads of body language he counts on. Meaning specific poses, like the hands in a steeple in front of the face. Annie Duke also uses it, one example I've seen her say is hooded eyes when making a bet  is a bluff. Phil Ivy varies his play based on the table he's at, he dosn't go in with a specific game plan of being tight or aggressive he bases his play on the feel of the game he's at. For myself I also play based on the feel of the game, agreed to get a feel for the opponent or if you have no read on them, knowing thier previous play is a big help. But reads on players is common, you may not get a read every single hand, but  alot of the time you can base your decision on a read. Say you're in a tournament and your pretty good at getting reads off body language you won't get reads on everyone but you will on alot of the players, giving you an edge. That's why players are always trying to get thier opponents to talk even just asking for a chip count to hear the tone of thier voice or see how they're counting the chips. Simply the term of having a "poker face" shows one dosn't want to give away thier hand by body language.

I'm not saying all of the play is based on human instinct, I just think its a big disadvantge to be without any.

Being smart by knowing all the odds and having a perfect memory of all previous play will definitely make the computer a very good player but in my opinion not the best. not by a long shot.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Joe: I agree that alot of the time players rely on patterns and odds when they have no other read and alot of players rely on it almost all the time, also if their read is questionable or nonexistant knowing the previous play can help make a decision.</p>
<p>But body language and instinct for many players is a big part of the game. Phil Helmuth (who has one WSOP bracelet more than Chan <img src='http://www.uglychart.com/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif' alt=':-)' class='wp-smiley' /> ) has a number of specific reads of body language he counts on. Meaning specific poses, like the hands in a steeple in front of the face. Annie Duke also uses it, one example I&#8217;ve seen her say is hooded eyes when making a bet  is a bluff. Phil Ivy varies his play based on the table he&#8217;s at, he dosn&#8217;t go in with a specific game plan of being tight or aggressive he bases his play on the feel of the game he&#8217;s at. For myself I also play based on the feel of the game, agreed to get a feel for the opponent or if you have no read on them, knowing thier previous play is a big help. But reads on players is common, you may not get a read every single hand, but  alot of the time you can base your decision on a read. Say you&#8217;re in a tournament and your pretty good at getting reads off body language you won&#8217;t get reads on everyone but you will on alot of the players, giving you an edge. That&#8217;s why players are always trying to get thier opponents to talk even just asking for a chip count to hear the tone of thier voice or see how they&#8217;re counting the chips. Simply the term of having a &#8220;poker face&#8221; shows one dosn&#8217;t want to give away thier hand by body language.</p>
<p>I&#8217;m not saying all of the play is based on human instinct, I just think its a big disadvantge to be without any.</p>
<p>Being smart by knowing all the odds and having a perfect memory of all previous play will definitely make the computer a very good player but in my opinion not the best. not by a long shot.</p>
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		<title>By: Joe</title>
		<link>http://www.uglychart.com/2007/07/28/more-on-polaris-and-the-first-man-machine-poker-championship/#comment-31002</link>
		<dc:creator>Joe</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 30 Jul 2007 18:33:24 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.uglychart.com/2007/07/28/more-on-polaris-and-the-first-man-machine-poker-championship/#comment-31002</guid>
		<description>I'm not surprised that the machine lost likely due to the fact that the programmers were imperfect in humanizing the computer (i.e., giving it instinct).  In regards to what Jake said previously, I believe that "human instinct" and reading body language are overrated in poker.  I'm a somewhat accomplished tournament poker player, and I purposely don't make any attempt to read other players--namely because I'm so bad at it!  And many top pros will actually tell you the same thing.  Johnny Chan states that he'll rarely use body language as a tell (unless his opponent is a total amateur); he simply uses patterns and odds.  Many top pros simply turn poker into a game of backgammon (i.e., play the odds).  And we all know that the best backgammon players in the world are computers!</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I&#8217;m not surprised that the machine lost likely due to the fact that the programmers were imperfect in humanizing the computer (i.e., giving it instinct).  In regards to what Jake said previously, I believe that &#8220;human instinct&#8221; and reading body language are overrated in poker.  I&#8217;m a somewhat accomplished tournament poker player, and I purposely don&#8217;t make any attempt to read other players&#8211;namely because I&#8217;m so bad at it!  And many top pros will actually tell you the same thing.  Johnny Chan states that he&#8217;ll rarely use body language as a tell (unless his opponent is a total amateur); he simply uses patterns and odds.  Many top pros simply turn poker into a game of backgammon (i.e., play the odds).  And we all know that the best backgammon players in the world are computers!</p>
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