Archive for October, 2006

A dummy a day: Nam Tai Electronics Inc. (NTE)

Tuesday, October 31st, 2006

Since day trading is a lot about recognizing the patterns in charts, I have decided to post a chart every day that would have resulted in a profitable dummy trade. I will post these in the dummy-a-day category which you can simply click to review for practice. The chart will be displayed as it looked when the trade should have been executed, and when you move your mouse over the image, it will show how the trade would have resulted.
I couldn’t find anything on my list, but I got NTE from Mercado de Estocástica’s Day Trades that Got Away:


If you bought NTE when it broke above the 12:00 candle at $14.98 with a stop below it at $14.85, you would only risk 13 cents. Holding until the end of the day would have given you about 55 cents for every share you owned, or over 4 times your risk.

October 2006 Review

Tuesday, October 31st, 2006

It was another disappointing, flat month for the team at uglychart.com.

I made over 100 trades this month, which seems a little high and my win rate was only 41.9%.
Especially after such a strong start, it was hard to see my account go into the red. The one good thing, though, is that it really forced me to think about everything very hard. And from this, I was able to change my system into one that works and feels better for me. After a full month of trading this way in November, I will have a better idea of how well this new style works.
It is amazing all of the obstacles in the way of a trader. Emotions, styles, charts, strategies, luck, etc… You really need to juggle and balance them all in your favor. It is so easy for one to slip without your notice - until you can see it in your results.
And that is just trading - your “other” life needs to be steady as well or it could rock the boat and cause your trading to suffer.
Managing yourself while trading is kind of like caring for a manic-depressive patient. You need to be careful not to take things personally, and always try to look at things realistically. You need to be calm, patient, thoughtful, strict - the list goes on and on. It’s a great job, but it isn’t easy. It is really hard, but that’s one of the things that I love about it.

Ugly 2.0 - AKAM, HANS, TWTC, ADM, JOYG, BRCD

Tuesday, October 31st, 2006

My trading has completely turned around since I became allergic to losing money and started closing my trades “too soon.” I started trading like that last Tuesday and in the six trading days since then, I have had only one down day. Maybe it is a coincidence, but I don’t think so. I feel much more in control. It feels great. I’ve decided to post all of my trades today to give an example of what my trading is like.
First I bought AKAM just after 10:30 at $47.04. After it spiked up, I sold 40% at $47.47. It kept going, so I sold another 20% at $47.58. I wanted to hold the rest into the close, because I thought there was a chance that AKAM could run, but I closed the rest of the position around noon at $47.35 because I didn’t like the feel of the market.



I saw some volume on HANS and it had opened strongly and had formed a narrow 10:30 candle, so I bought a small position before it broke above the candle at $32.09. It didn’t move in my favor so I closed the position at $32.03 and decided to wait for it to really break out, which it never did.


TWTC seemed like it had some support at $19.90, after having tested that level on the three prior candles. So when it broke over the 11am candle, I bought a small position at $19.97. It didn’t continue so I closed half ten minutes later at $19.95 and the rest was stopped out six minutes later at $19.89.


Although consumer staples were holding up, ADM looked weak after earnings so I shorted it when it broke below the 11:30 candle at an average price of $38.24. I always have a hard time shorting ADM - it never wants to give. I covered about 12% at $38.19, another 25% just after 12:30 at $38.05, another 25% at $38.035. I wanted to let the rest go into the close, but I saw a lot of shares sitting on the ask at $38, so I put my stop at $38.01 and I was filled just before 2pm to close the entire position.


JOYG had a lot of support at $39.50, so I decided to short it when it broke at around 11:50 for an average price of $39.475. I chickened out and covered 30% too soon at $39.32. This was too soon, I should be a little more patient than this. It then spiked down and I covered another 20% at $39.15. I shot my 50% wad too quick here and wanted to hold the rest, but the market wouldn’t seem to break so I covered 20% at $39, 10% at $38.84, 10% at $38.95 and the last 10% at $38.97.


Finally, I saw some support on BRCD at $8.08, so I blew a load of commission and shorted it when the bid was evaporating at $8.08 at around 12:30. 40 minutes later, it wasn’t doing much for me so I covered about 35% at $8.05 and the rest a little later at $8.07.


Now none of these trades were spectacular - but the cumulative effect is pretty big. For example, if I had held all of my trades until they hit their stops or the end of the day (as I pretty much used to trade) I would have lost 3.5R instead of making 3R.

15 stocks closed at all-time lows

Tuesday, October 31st, 2006

“It is one of the great paradoxes of the stock market that what seems too high usually goes higher and what seems too low usually goes lower.” - William O’Neil

Symbol Price Volume Avg. Volume % Vol. Increase
SMI 5.76 1771900 894662 %98.05
ARDM 1.08 726537 47143 %1441.13
SLTC 2.16 567170 55590 %920.27
WHT 1.28 254400 48754 %421.80
LGVN 0.98 61243 42354 %44.59

– Click here for today’s full list –

251 stocks closed at all-time highs

Tuesday, October 31st, 2006

“It is one of the great paradoxes of the stock market that what seems too high usually goes higher and what seems too low usually goes lower.” - William O’Neil

Symbol Price Volume Avg. Volume % Vol. Increase High Alpha
CELG 53.44 12500102 3465580 %260.69
CBG 30.03 5389000 1855840 %190.38
MOS 18.72 4333300 930596 %365.64
FPL 51 4321900 2417230 %78.79
DTV 22.28 4141500 5453150 %-24.05

– Click here for today’s full list –

Ray Kurzweil on TV this weekend

Tuesday, October 31st, 2006

A reader let me know that Ray Kurzweil will be on In Depth on C-SPAN2 on November 5th. The show will go from 12-3pm. Awesome! Thanks, Jim.

Ugly Picks

Tuesday, October 31st, 2006

Good morning, my name is Ugly, and I am a loser. I have it in me to do serious financial damage to my account.

Dear Diary,
Happy Halloween - last day of the month, let’s make it a good one.
Based on Friday’s trading, the following stocks are worth noting:

POT Basic Materials Nonmetallic Mineral Mining
BLK Financial Investment Brokerage - Regional
OMC Services Advertising Agencies
AEOS Services Apparel Stores
CCO Services Marketing Services
HRZ Services Shipping
NUAN Technology Application Software
SMSI Technology Application Software
NVEC Technology Semiconductor - Specialized
SIGM Technology Semiconductor Equipment & Materials
Q Technology Telecom Services - Domestic

Support uglychart.com by becoming a sponsor!

Speaking of Nuance Communications, Inc. (NUAN)…

Monday, October 30th, 2006

Nuance Communications’ newest version of speech-recognition software can achieve 99 percent accuracy out of the box. The previous version, released in 2004, could reach 99 percent only after the user read a prepared script.
Anyone use it for trading?

A dummy a day: Nuance Communications, Inc. (NUAN)

Monday, October 30th, 2006

Since day trading is a lot about recognizing the patterns in charts, I have decided to post a chart every day that would have resulted in a profitable dummy trade. I will post these in the dummy-a-day category which you can simply click to review for practice. The chart will be displayed as it looked when the trade should have been executed, and when you move your mouse over the image, it will show how the trade would have resulted.
Here is one I missed from today, NUAN:


If you bought NUAN when it broke above the 11:00 candle at $10.48 with a stop below it at $10.37, you would only risk 11 cents. Holding until the end of the day would have given you about 41 cents for every share you owned, or nearly 4 times your risk.

15 stocks closed at all-time lows

Monday, October 30th, 2006

“It is one of the great paradoxes of the stock market that what seems too high usually goes higher and what seems too low usually goes lower.” - William O’Neil

Symbol Price Volume Avg. Volume % Vol. Increase
DXCM 8.78 723191 0 %N/A
NEXT 10.33 278779 0 %N/A
SLTC 2.26 197592 44428 %344.74
LGVN 0.98 125815 41716 %201.59
EEEI 1.46 83377 36742 %126.92

– Click here for today’s full list –