Archive for June, 2006

Charts galore

Friday, June 30th, 2006

I’m getting a kick out of all the ways I can look at my trading journal. It’s definitely a big help in seeing where your problems and advantages are. In my previous June Review post, I attached a chart of the progress of my R sum throughout the month. The following chart is the same R chart plotted with the percent growth of my account balance (after commission). It shows that even though some of my trades (especially towards the end of the month) were very successful in terms of risk-to-reward, I didn’t make a lot of money from them:
R vs % equity growth

31 stocks closed at all-time lows

Friday, June 30th, 2006

“It is one of the great paradoxes of the stock market that what seems too high usually goes higher and what seems too low usually goes lower.” - William O’Neil

Symbol Price Volume Avg. Volume % Vol. Increase
ANDS 2.92 3155876 557837 %465.73
BKC 15.75 2487700 0 %N/A
FORG 0.6701 1492947 120040 %1143.70
DCP 10.38 1309400 0 %N/A
CODI 14.27 1139653 0 %N/A

– Click here for today’s full list –

155 stocks closed at all-time highs

Friday, June 30th, 2006

“It is one of the great paradoxes of the stock market that what seems too high usually goes higher and what seems too low usually goes lower.” - William O’Neil

Symbol Price Volume Avg. Volume % Vol. Increase High Alpha
AMLN 49.37 11898968 2752600 %332.28
LVS 77.86 8582900 1900770 %351.54
CELG 47.43 7306862 3917620 %86.51
BDN 32.17 4343800 616730 %604.32
BLKB 22.7 4112638 341129 %1105.59

– Click here for today’s full list –

June Review

Friday, June 30th, 2006

Despite two breaches in my system, June was a good month. I was up about 40R:
R chart for the month
The 29th trade and the 59th trade represent whole days where I overtraded and did not follow my system. I do not include each separate trade in my journal for these days (because there are so many trades and I’m not following my system) so I include them as one trade and I compute the R value based on my average R for the month. So that is why I say I was up “about” 40R, because there is estimation involved with these two days.
Despite all the R, my account was only up 18%. I know I know, 18% is pretty good. But I had planned on my average R being 1.2% of my total equity. It turns out it was only 0.6%. And I have to figure out why that happened and what I can do to change it. If I had used 1.2%, I’d be up 36% instead. An example is trade 86, which was my biggest risk-to-reward trade for the month but also my lowest R value.
Some of the reasons I used less of an R were: 1) I thought the market direction was questionable and so I wanted to lessen my risk, 2) I didn’t have confidence in shorting and so I lessened my risk, 3) my math is bad and I figured the wrong position sizes, 4) I overestimated slippage and underestimated liquidity, and 5) some bars were so narrow that I was afraid to buy so many shares.
My first reaction to all of this was that I will increase my R and this will hopefully increase my average R. But I think instead that I will put more effort into buying enough so that I am risking what I want to. My goal for July is to bring my average R up to 1%.
I attribute a lot of my success this month to meditating for 30 minutes every morning before the market opens. My worst day was a day that I overslept and didn’t have time to meditate. It has also helped me in other ways besides trading. I feel more content and have less of a temper. I also attribute the success of this month to the fact that I was using 30-minute candles, which did not allow me much opportunity to overtrade. Also, I put a lot of effort into looking for very narrow bars.
I am on vacation until the 10th. The new all-time highs/lows will continue to post as usual.

Ugly Picks

Friday, June 30th, 2006

Good morning, my name is Ugly, and I am a loser. I have it in me to do serious financial damage to my account.

Dear Diary,
Last day of the month - let’s try to end it strong.
The following alpha stocks are opening up:

AUY Basic Materials Gold
GG Basic Materials Gold
GLG Basic Materials Gold
TIE Basic Materials Industrial Metals & Minerals
SLW Basic Materials Silver
ATI Basic Materials Steel & Iron
BBD Financial Foreign Regional Banks
CELG Healthcare Biotechnology
NVAX Healthcare Biotechnology
VRTX Healthcare Drug Manufacturers - Other
JOYG Industrial Goods Farm & Construction Machinery
RBAK Technology Business Software & Services
AMKR Technology Semiconductor - Integrated Circuits
NVDA Technology Semiconductor - Specialized
MICC Technology Telecom Services - Foreign

The following alpha stocks are opening down:
(more…)

30 stocks closed at all-time lows

Thursday, June 29th, 2006

“It is one of the great paradoxes of the stock market that what seems too high usually goes higher and what seems too low usually goes lower.” - William O’Neil

Symbol Price Volume Avg. Volume % Vol. Increase
INFS 2.76 1241483 269096 %361.35
THI 25.54 975900 0 %N/A
CMLS 10.04 757495 709092 %6.82
BKC 16.19 744200 0 %N/A
TVL 7.49 480900 180778 %166.01

– Click here for today’s full list –

125 stocks closed at all-time highs

Thursday, June 29th, 2006

“It is one of the great paradoxes of the stock market that what seems too high usually goes higher and what seems too low usually goes lower.” - William O’Neil

Symbol Price Volume Avg. Volume % Vol. Increase High Alpha
AVR 38.37 12096000 0 %N/A
KMG 69.45 6055500 4941810 %22.53
NFB 30.43 5146500 2812330 %82.99
CELG 47.23 3525815 3925530 %-10.18
GRMN 107.55 3447954 1375540 %150.66 *

– Click here for today’s full list –

Wow

Thursday, June 29th, 2006

Now that is just nuts.
I came back from my walk at around 3pm and I see the market on fire. Even though I knew the fed news was coming out, my first reaction on something like that is “they caught Bin Laden.”
QQQQ 1-min chart
Losing money is the worst, but watching the Nasdaq close up 62 points - and not riding it for a penny - is definitely a close second. The reason I was in “light trading mode” was because the risk was too high today. The market is always very choppy when the news comes out at 2:15.
Shorts got killed today. I hope some of you were able to ride that wave (tsunami) up. It looks like a bullish follow-through day on the long term charts. Man, now I don’t want to go on vacation.

Ugly Picks

Thursday, June 29th, 2006

Good morning, my name is Ugly, and I am a loser. I have it in me to do serious financial damage to my account.

Dear Diary,
Today I am in “very light trading” mode because of the fed meeting. Next week (July 2-8) I will be on vacation. I am currently at my high profit mark for the month, so my goal is to top off this month at the high.
The following alpha stocks are opening up:

OMNI Basic Materials Oil & Gas Equipment & Services
PEIX Basic Materials Specialty Chemicals
ELN Healthcare Drug Delivery
MED Services Specialty Retail
Q Technology Telecom Services - Domestic

The following alpha stocks are opening down:
(more…)

Featured kung fu students

Wednesday, June 28th, 2006

In this video, a few of my japanese students demonstrate a technique that I taught them regarding how to defend yourself against English-speaking attackers: