Ugly Picks

Good morning, my name is Ugly, and I am a loser. I have it in me to do serious financial damage to my account.

EVST moved up on news. I like the chart, but I would rather see a move like this on no news. I also like the tiny float and high insider ownership- still I would be careful with it.
The chart looks just right for HBP, a stock I have watched for a while.
After buying SIM at $5 and watching it almost to $9, I was stopped out back near $5. I still like SIM a lot, especially after today.
AAPL continues to continue.
A couple of the strongest stocks in the market, IPS and TGA made nice, strong moves today.
CNC has gone up since its IPO in 2002. Why should it stop now?
CULS should be on the watch list, also.
The move on ISCA today, combined with the block trades last Wednesday, make it very tempting.

If you are not yet short ANTP, now might be a good time.

posted to stocks
* user agreement -- how to use ugly picks -------------------- day 30

Ugly Picks

Good morning, my name is Ugly, and I am a loser. I have it in me to do serious financial damage to my account.

TIE is one to watch.
GEOI could be starting a move.
SPTN has been performing very well in the recent weakness of the market.

PHRM looks like a good one to watch for shorting.
So does ABIX.
GIVN seems to be rounding the corner and will head down.
IFLO is one to watch as it looks to be weakening.
OSTK looks like a solid short.
SINA, which I've mentioned before, looks like it is falling off of a cliff.

Will the markets break down their 200dmas this week? We'll see.

posted to stocks
* user agreement -- how to use ugly picks -------------------- day 29

Stock Market Samurai continued

Another important lesson for the stock market samurai:

Lesson #3: Respect deities, but do not rely upon them

Learn from the great traders to develop your own system. Study those who have beaten the market, but do not follow them blindly. Use your reason and judgment in determining what is right for you. On your search for wholeness, self-reliance is the essence of experience.

posted to kung fu stocks

Bobby Fischer, Icelander

It looks like Bobby Fischer will now be granted citizenship in Iceland. I don't think this will help him much, but who knows. I am curious as to why Iceland is so supportive of Bobby Fischer, even when pressured by the USA to stop.

“"Bobby Fischer tried to get residence permits in many countries, but they all turned him down. I suggested he come to Iceland, and when he found out that it wasn’t as cold here as he had thought, he liked the idea."

I wonder how this will improve the chess playing strength of Iceland, which is currently ranked 41st in the world. I just did the calculations - it will bring them up to 28th place, right behind Sweden.

In similar news, here is an interesting article about the effects of computers and the internet on chess. The easy access to information has been beneficial to many individual players, but it also speeds the demise of the game. Chess will never die as a game amongst friends and amateurs, but on the international level it is already dying.

Gregory Shahade, an international master, said he has used databases, partly because everyone else does. Computers and databases have made chess more predictable and probably less fun, he says, adding, "It seems there is less creativity now."
Garry Kasparov, a former world champion and still the world's top-ranked player, agreed that electronic aids may have stifled creativity, at least in the openings.

Fischer Random Chess hopes to put this problem in check. Fischer came up with this chess variant so that "chess creativity and talent would be more important than memorization and analysis of opening moves."

posted to chess

Hansen Natural Corp.

Portfolio pick, HANS, has made a new all-time high today while the market weakens. The trend is beautiful to look at:

posted to stocks

Ugly Picks

Good morning, my name is Ugly, and I am a loser. I have it in me to do serious financial damage to my account.

Both RMI and PROG look as strong as they did when I recommended them back in September.
The block trade on PDEX looks nice.
FDP made a bold move today, breaking out over $30 and some long term resistance. Shorts are panicking.
Recent IPO BWLD also made a bold move at the end of the day, marking a new all time high.
I would watch TSRA now for a break over $40.
ANSI looks safe.

NVTL is tanking and one to watch for shorting.
REDF is also one to watch for shorting.

Click below to sign up for daily emails from Ugly with more specific details of his picks, including buy and sell points.

posted to stocks
* user agreement -- how to use ugly picks -------------------- day 28

Kung Fu Hustle

Kung Fu Hustle was shown a few days ago at the Sundance Film Festival and is not going to be released to theaters in the USA until March April 1. However I was able to work my kung fu connections and obtain a copy and have watched the first couple of minutes. It looks pretty good and I am excited to watch the whole thing this weekend. I'll post a review.
Click here to see the official site with trailers, etc...

posted to movies kungfu

Ugly Picks

Good morning, my name is Ugly, and I am a loser. I have it in me to do serious financial damage to my account.

PNRA made a new all-time high and looks safe.
You might want to keep an eye on EYE - it looks pretty good after today's breakout.
Yes, and WCG looks ripe.
NAT had good news and looks like a winner.
The block trade on BRY today looks very nice.
When someone is trying to accumulate shares of a very thinly traded stock, the chart looks like ARKR.

CACS looks to continue its decline, although I would wait to short it at the right moment.
Some of you may want to consider shorting DCAI tomorrow - it is not for me, though.

Is the market turning back up to make new highs? I would not count on it. You know as well as I that the market can and will do anything it wants. But even though the market was up the last couple of days, it is still pointing down. It is also not weak enough to stick a fork into. It is in the ambiguous area below its 50dma and above its 200dma. It is probably more wise to be patient and wait for things to clear up. Trading above the 50dma is bullish and below the 200dma is bearish.

posted to stocks
* user agreement -- how to use ugly picks -------------------- day 27

Chess Lessons

After becoming deeply involved with chess during most of highschool, I eventually gave it up for three reasons:
1) I realized that I would not be the best
2) I eventually decided that, although I loved the game very much, it was a waste of time, and
3) I started hanging out with more girls. I wouldn't say they were more fun or more deeply satisfying - but they were able to distract me away from the game.
But I think chess is a beautiful game and gave me great training in confidence, strategy, organization and memorization.
My friend Gaëtan, from Liège, sent me this very helpful link that has free online chess lessons from some of the best players in the world.

posted to chess

Risk of Commodities

Trading commodities is often seen as being more risky than the stock market. Mark Hulbert says that based on a recent study, over the last 45 years commodities are 19% less risky and produce almost identical returns. And it isn't enough just to buy commodity company stocks:

Over the last four decades, their commodity futures index more than tripled the cumulative performance of the average stock involved in the production of those commodities. The professors conclude: "an investment in commodity company stocks has not been a close substitute for an investment in commodity futures."

posted to stocks

Up in Down Under

They say that if you flush the toilet on the other side of the world, it spirals the other direction. As it turns out, that is not true. But the All Ordinaries - the market index down under - has moved up since the beginning of the year while the US markets have moved down.
When Jim Rogers rode his motorcycle around Australia (and the rest of the world) and wrote about it in his book, Investment Biker, I remember him preaching - as usual - about its supply of natural resources - or Hot Commodities.
Ian Lovett, in the Daily Telegraph, notices the divergence between our countries' indices:

Normally, our sharemarket follow the US like a faithful puppy. So why the difference?
"That's easy," said chartist Joe Spadaro. "We have BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto. They don't."
"BHP and Rio are trading at their all time highs. If you took them out our market would be doing no better than Wall Street," he said.

posted to stocks

Ugly Picks

Good morning, my name is Ugly, and I am a loser. I have it in me to do serious financial damage to my account.

IRIS has been strong in this dog market.
The market looks weak, but I may place a small bet on ESLR tomorrow.

ALDN is one to add to the watch list for shorting.
DSCO looks like good timing to short.
MNDO looks set to break down through its 200dma.
I am interested to see how XMSR reacts to its support at $30 and its 200dma.

My stop at 17.99 on TRGL seems solid as today looked like it could be a bottom.
If my calculations are correct, we should see sub-2000 on the Nasdaq this week or next. But my calculations are seldom correct.

posted to stocks
* user agreement -- how to use ugly picks -------------------- day 26

Chess and IQ

Researchers have discovered that bad chess players are not necessarily intelligent (still no cure for cancer):

Researchers at the University of Minnesota at Minneapolis used functional magnetic resonance imaging to scan the brains of novice players during a match and found a flurry of activity in the parietal and occipital lobes, areas not associated with general intelligence.

Maybe that lobe is what makes them go nuts.

posted to chess

Kikkoman

Thank you, Harry Knutsacke, for introducing me to Kikkoman.

posted to misc

Ugly Picks

Good morning, my name is Ugly, and I am a loser. I have it in me to do serious financial damage to my account.

GLOW is showing some interest. And what's up with ADAM? It has low volume, though.

ADSK broke through a nice up trending line - it is not a good sign for the market. Neither is the purge on DECK, another leader in the bull market of the last two years. I think it is too soon now, but I would watch these for short opportunities in the future.
URBN and YHOO and JUPM are similar leaders that look weak.
ALGN and FARO look like they might be good shorts.
And I think it is a good time to short EPIC, SOHU and ERES.
TZOO is done - stick a fork in it.
Can ZBRA hold $50? - I don't think for long.
And long time standing #1 on the top 100 - IIIN - is bending with the weight of the market.
GRA also seems to be cracking.

posted to stocks
* user agreement -- how to use ugly picks -------------------- day 25

The Ugly Rally Cap©

This is the type of market that puts you to the test. In these types of unsure conditions, it is often a good idea to take a break and clear your head. Don't give up. Bring yourself back to the trading desk and put on your Ugly Rally Cap©. Rally caps have important psychological and magical powers.
To make an Ugly Rally Cap©, simply follow these easy instructions:
1) Find an old baseball cap, a roll of duct tape, and a red marker
2) Wrap the outside of the baseball cap completely in duct tape, making sure not to ruin the shape of the cap so that it will fit comfortably on your head
3) Draw the uglychart logo on the front of the cap

Remember, an Ugly Rally Cap© is not worn in hopes of making the market rally. It is put on to help you rally. Good luck!

posted to misc

Gambling with the IRS

I wonder if you could claim professional gambling status on your tax return as a day trader.

"Phillips says that IRS doesn't really care if the business you report is legal or illegal -- just as long as you report the income and pay your taxes."

posted to poker

The Code of the Samurai

The Stock Market Samurai is not the only one who understands the importance of the code of the samurai:

And since the bubble burst on Japan's economy about 15 years ago, regaining the samurai spirit has been a common topic of discussion and concern there, De Mente said.
"The older Japanese recognize that if they lose more of the samurai code, then Japan is in for trouble," he said. "Without that attitude, they're just going to be another kid on the block."

From the Arizona Republic.

posted to kung fu

Ugly Picks

Good morning, my name is Ugly, and I am a loser. I have it in me to do serious financial damage to my account.

Here are some old leaders and other stocks that are weak with the market and should be watched for possibly shorting:
FLML GOOG GSIC IMGN JNPR NMSS OMCL RIMM OLED

It may be a good time to short SBUX and buy coffee.

ENWV looks good.
SEB has been forming a base and volume is starting to pick up - it could be ready to move away from the psychologically important round number $1000.
The block trade on MDTL is something to note and watch.
CLF made a new high and is moving strong despite the weak market.
The market is weak, but if it starts to regain strength, RMI around $3.50 looks like a good bet - if you can get it.

The market is in motion - down. And Newton's law says that an object in motion tends to stay in motion in the same direction. It is trending down. That doesn't mean it will go down every day. And there are many different trends going on at once. It is like walking on a train. You are moving one direction, the train is moving another, the Earth is spinning another, in orbit around the Sun and the Sun is moving around the galaxy, which is spinning too. It is the same with the market. Minute by minute it trends one direction, but it can be looked at weekly, monthly, yearly or even by decades or more. The more trends you see, the clearer your picture. But the most important trend for you is the one that you trade.

posted to stocks
* user agreement -- how to use ugly picks -------------------- day 24

If I had a dollar for each year the universe has existed...

...I still wouldn't have half as much as Warren Buffet.
I just read this really interesting article about the end of the universe and what to do about it. The size of the universe, along with the fact that it never ends, is mind boggling enough. Add to that the thought of infinite parallel universes and it makes you dizzy.

Although thermodynamics and cosmology point to the eventual death of all lifeforms in the universe, there is still one loophole. It is a law of evolution that, when the environment changes radically, life must adapt, flee or die. The first alternative seems impossible. The last is undesirable. This leaves us with one choice: leave the universe.

posted to misc

Jim Rogers on the Housing Bubble

From his new book, Hot Commodities:

A massive speculative bubble in the U.S. housing market seems to be floating from coast to coast, and when it bursts (as bubbles always do) some serious pain is in store for the millions of Americans who have been borrowing against their home equity at record rates -- $750 billion in 2003. The resulting loss in wealth could be between $2 trillion and $3 trillion, sparking an economic downturn reminiscent of the one that resulted when the dot-com stock bubble went kaboom.

posted to stocks

Ugly Picks

Good morning, my name is Ugly, and I am a loser. I have it in me to do serious financial damage to my account.

Ugly pick FORD went up a shload after good earnings news. However, most of the volume in the market today was to the downside.

The following look weak and good to watch for shorting:
ENCY FWHT NTES NVTL SBAC

The large block trade on KMRT today is important to note. Its significance will become more clear as trading continues.

The selling on the market feels strong, but a test of how strong it really is will be at the 200dma. I might put on a couple short trades, but nothing too much until I see how things play out.

posted to stocks
* user agreement -- how to use ugly picks -------------------- day 23

Want to lose weight?

Instead of the goal of losing weight, I would recommend focusing on being healthy.
What use is it to be thin if you are not any more healthy? Unless, of course, you are a teenage girl. Actually, especially if you are a teenage girl (who are unfortunately also the target of the tobacco industry).
If you are healthy, you will be physically fit. You will look and feel much better.
To accomplish this, you do not necessarily have to eat less, but eat more healthy.
Eat more fruits, vegetables, and whole grains - and less sugar, trans fats, and processed and refined foods. Also, get some regular exercise.
Healthy foods taste better anyway. This (pictured) Original Tomato Greek Salad Wrap, that I occasionally have for lunch, is delicious and very healthy.
Here are some more tips on becoming more healthy.

posted to health

Ugly Picks

Good morning, my name is Ugly, and I am a loser. I have it in me to do serious financial damage to my account.

PENN looks determined to get to 100 whether the market will cooperate or not.
SINA looks like a good short.

The market looks bearish- I think we will head to the 200dma and see what happens from there. I'd limit buying and sell your weakest.

posted to stocks
* user agreement -- how to use ugly picks -------------------- day 22

A glimpse of after hours trading on the QQQQ

It tanked...

posted to stocks

The China Log

The China Log is a blog with "news, analysis and background papers provided as a support service for the 10 March 2005 NBR/EMA/Rotary International Business and Trade Summit on China." It has a lot of interesting content and I think Jim Rogers and Chairman MaoXian will be interested.

posted to stocks

Ouch

It is looking pretty fugly out there today.

posted to stocks

Petition filed in Tokyo court for Bobby Fischer

Iceland has agreed to accept Bobby Fischer, but Japan will not let him go. And the US wants Iceland to drop its offer, but Iceland will not.

posted to chess

Ugly Picks

Good morning, my name is Ugly, and I am a loser. I have it in me to do serious financial damage to my account.

ORCC broke out of a long base, but has low average daily volume.
There was a big block trade on WYNN that looks good.
Could TRGL be starting a move? PRFT? We just have to watch closely and see.
VDSI also looks like it could be ready to pop.
ESLR, which I mentioned yesterday, continued its move today.
Recent IPO, HURN, might be one to keep your eye on.

The new *free* (donations accepted) stock screener seems to work pretty well and was picking out some nice looking charts for me.

Could the recent selling just be a correction and we are heading back up to new highs? I don't know, but $38 looked solid on the QQQQ - if it breaks, then there is more downside IMO. Strong trading above $39 and the 50dma would be bullish.

posted to stocks
* user agreement -- how to use ugly picks -------------------- day 21

Ugly Stock Screener

I've added more variables to this stock screener I am working on that I mentioned the other day. I will keep adding different options as time goes on.

posted to stocks

Samurai robs McDonald's

A samurai, dressed in black and wearing a mask and sunglasses, crawled through a drive-through window with his samurai sword and robbed a McDonald's.

Discussing yesterday's holdup, Glover said: "We have seen other incidents where swords were used, but this one was certainly unique in that a sword and a pipe were used by a suspect who still managed to crawl through a drive-through window."

posted to kungfu

GOOG

Today GOOG has made a new all-time high.

posted to stocks

Minnesota Cold

Today everyone is buzzing with the news that it is getting up to a high of 28 degrees F. Spring is on its way! This weekend it was down to -15 or so, and in some parts of Minnesota, down to -54!

posted to misc

Ugly Picks

Good morning, my name is Ugly, and I am a loser. I have it in me to do serious financial damage to my account.

BOO was up Friday after some nice news. I would watch to see if it can break $15.
ESLR chart looks kind of good, so it might be worth watching.
FORD has a nice looking chart and could be moving back up to make new highs.
Some block trades on Friday, along with an end of the day move on one of the strongest stocks in the market, ENWV, look appealing.
PCSA broke out of a 2-month base with volume.

This week I am watching 10500 on the DJIA, $38 on the QQQQ, 1175 on the S&P500, and 2050 on the Nasdaq as support and each of their 50 day moving averages as resistance. If it can move across these levels strongly, it will be at least bullish or bearish in the short term.

posted to stocks
* user agreement -- how to use ugly picks -------------------- day 20

Jim Rogers interview in Time

Here is a brief Time interview with Jim Rogers - yes, its about China, commodities and his book.

posted to stocks

Some investing advice from Warren Buffet

This article summarizes some of Warren Buffet's advice on investing from the book, The Warren Buffet Way.

"The basic ideas of investing are to look at stocks as businesses, use market fluctuations to your advantage, and seek a margin of safety. That's what Ben Graham taught us. A hundred years from now, they will still be the cornerstones of investing," says Buffett.

posted to stocks

Hotel Rwanda

Hotel Rwanda is one of the best movies I have seen in a long time. I thought that it was not only good, but important. I was impressed by Don Cheadle. I think that it is doing poorly at the box office for some of the same reasons nobody did anything to stop the genocide in Rwanda - they don't really care about it and it is depressing. Leonard Maltin says:

Nothing kills audience interest in a movie more quickly than being told the film is “important.” Even writer-director Terry George, who spent years of his life bringing this astonishing story to the screen, understood the risk of making a message movie about the Rwandan massacre of 1994. He was smart enough to focus on one man, Paul Rusesabagina, and he scored a bull’s-eye by casting Don Cheadle to play him.

In the news yesterday - one million Rwandans are to face murder charges soon for what happened in 1994.

posted to movies

ET Visitors

There was a very interesting article from space.com on Friday explaining how scientist believe there is a high likelihood of Earth being visited by extraterrestrial life.

"We are in the curious situation today that our best modern physics and astrophysics theories predict that we should be experiencing extraterrestrial visitation, yet any possible evidence of such lurking in the UFO phenomenon is scoffed at within our scientific community," contends astrophysicist Bernard Haisch.

posted to misc

New moving average research page

By a request from kubooo, I have created a program that scans stocks based on certain user input variables regarding percentages above or below various moving averages.
You can check it out here.
I am going to start working more on these types of programs for this website. If there is something you would find useful, let me know.

More from Jim Rogers about commodities

Jim Rogers is now bearish on stocks and bullish on commodities:

"People have come to think [stocks] are okay again. They're not," said Jim Rogers, co-founder of the Quantum Fund and author of three investment books, Adventure Capitalist, Investment Biker and Hot Commodities...
Historically, commodities and stock prices have moved in opposite directions. "In my view, we're in that kind of period again where essentially we're going to be having good commodity markets and sloppy stock markets," he said.

He believes this to be true because of supply and demand, the war in Iraq, and growth in China. Although he thinks the bull market in commodities started in 1999, he says this is just the beginning:

"When the price of raw materials is declining or under control, companies do well," Rogers says. "When commodities are going through the roof, they don't do as well....
Six years after the bull market started in 1982, most people were not aware of it," he says. "It usually dawns on people slowly that a bull market in commodities has started."

More signs of a housing bubble

According to CBS MarketWatch, "new data show a big jump in the percentage of home sales being made to investors."

"The strong upswing in [investor] share creates the suspicion that something is going on," said David Seiders, chief economist with the National Association of Home Builders. "It's the suddenness that creates the suspicion; demographics don't push things that fast."

Get in before they're hot!

That is how Jim Rogers autographs his new book, Hot Commodities, according to the Chicago Sun-Times. He has been predicting the bull market in commodities for a while and how it is mostly about the growth in China. But first he believes there will be a big setback for China this year, which will create a great buying opportunity. In his new book, he explains this and the best way to go about loading up on commodities:

In fact, the centerpiece of this book is a sort of "Commodities 101" for novice investors and traders. Rogers explains how the markets work, how to find and understand price quotations, and how to avoid being scammed. He even directs readers to exchange Web sites where they can be linked to legitimate futures brokerage firms and registered commodity trading advisers.

Ugly Picks

Good morning, my name is Ugly, and I am a loser. I have it in me to do serious financial damage to my account.

I think SEGU could do well if the market would cooperate.
Solid PENN looks like it could be starting to make a move, watch for a breakout.
Also watch FDG for a breakout over $80.
ISRG is just making new all time highs and looks good.
And FMD wanted to make an ass out of me. After I recently stated that it looked good, it promptly dropped and stopped me out and then immediately turned up and broke out to new highs. But this crap happens all the time and that is why I know they are all out to get me.
ATVI broke out with volume and looks good.
PARL, from the portfolio, looks pretty good after its move today.

Although some of these picks look pretty good, it is risky to buy in bearish market conditions. I am going to wait to see how the market plays out this latest weakness.

* user agreement -- how to use ugly picks -------------------- day 19

SEC charges the NYSE

The SEC is charging the NYSE for doing what it does best, "failing to police its specialists firms and ignoring violations that cheated investors out of millions of dollars."

According to the report, some of the firms that oversee trading at these exchanges withheld pricing information from the public or traded for their own accounts before filing public orders, the Journal reported, citing unnamed sources.
...it's likely that the NYSE will not be fined, but will accept censure by the SEC.

It seems to me that the SEC is trying to look like they are doing something when they really are doing nothing. But at least we are all safer now that Martha Stewart is behind bars.

Ugly Picks

Good morning, my name is Ugly, and I am a loser. I have it in me to do serious financial damage to my account.

RICK is for the daytraders to watch.
LNG is one of the few that has a decent looking chart.
CEDC is very strong despite the overall weakness in the market, I think it is one for the IRA.
If you would have bought BCR on Dec-03-1984, when I was only 8 years old, you would now be up 10,000% - and it still looks good on Jan-12-2005, when I am 28 years old! I bet it will be higher in 2025 when I am 48 years old.

* user agreement -- how to use ugly picks -------------------- day 18

End of day push

Is the trendline still intact? It could go either way, depending on what happens tomorrow or Friday. The S&P 500 and DJIA successfully tested their 50dmas, the Nasdaq needs to break above its own.

Chess makes a difference

Computers are better at chess and now they are going for the world cup.
I wonder how long before they are kung fu masters, like myself.
Or until they dominate the stock market, much unlike myself:

If ever there were a field in which machine intelligence seemed destined to replace human brainpower, the stock market would have to be it. Investing is the ultimate numbers game, after all, and when it comes to crunching numbers, silicon beats gray matter every time. Nevertheless, the world has yet to see anything like a Wall Street version of Deep Blue, the artificially intelligent machine that defeated chess grand master Gary Kasparov in 1997.

Even though chess players often go nuts trying to beat these computers, there are many benefits to teaching chess to youth:

"...the project produced demonstrable results in relation to improved behaviour at school, improved learning, enhanced parental involvement and active citizenship. The research report confirms this and points to chess as an important tool in improving attainment".

Carmella DeCesare

Kung fu master Carmella DeCesare karate kicked her Cleveland Browns playing boyfriend's ex-girlfriend:

Name-calling ensued, and a friend of Hine's dumped a drink on DeCesare. Each woman had to be restrained and when Hine tried to walk away, DeCesare allegedly grabbed a dance pole and kicked Hine in the head, snapping her head back.

Ugly Picks

Good morning, my name is Ugly, and I am a loser. I have it in me to do serious financial damage to my account.

TZOO looks like a good short.

The market dropped again with volume, and seemed to break through the trendline that I mentioned yesterday. IBD is calling the rally dead with today being the fourth or fifth distribution day in the last four weeks. It will be interesting to see how the market reacts after gapping up to the good news from INTC tomorrow. Any weakness and you can stick a fork in it. But if it rallies hard with volume, it could be time for another leg up.
I'm holding off on any trades until I can see which way this market is going.
A QQQQ close above $39 is bullish, below $38 is bearish.

* user agreement -- how to use ugly picks -------------------- day 17

Pistachio Encrusted Salmon

On a day like today I could really use a warm spinach salad topped with a pistachio encrusted salmon fillet.

Weak

Another weak day today. The trendline I've been talking about looks broken.

Ugly Picks

Good morning, my name is Ugly, and I am a loser. I have it in me to do serious financial damage to my account.

ACU is very strong, although it has low liquidity I still like it.
VIVO broke out of its one month base with volume. Looks good.
RMI is breaking out of a ten year base to make new all time highs.
One of my favorites, SNDA, looks like a good buy right now. Why don't I own this one yet?
I shorted COBZ today near its neckline. I also added AACC to the portfolio.

Although the market has been weak, the 10 million share block trade on the QQQQ right at the trendline on Friday looks as though it could provide support. The QQQQ will need to break above its 50dma soon for this to be the case. A close below $38 and the trendline is broken.

* user agreement -- how to use ugly picks -------------------- day 16

Ugly Picks

Good morning, my name is Ugly, and I am a loser. I have it in me to do serious financial damage to my account.

WSTF broke over long term resistance at $5 with good news on Friday. It is one to keep on the watch list.
It has low liquidity, but I really like the looks of recent IPO AACC.
ASY has moved up to #3 in the top 100 and has doubled since its breakout at the end of November.
Kubooo is bearish on PARL and advised me to sell it from the portfolio.
On Friday, I mentioned my bearish sentiment on COBZ and the importance of the 5 million share block trade on the QQQQ.

Congratulations to Mr. Chairman for the article about www.maoxian.com in Barrons.

* user agreement -- how to use ugly picks -------------------- day 15

Million Dollar Baby

I saw Million Dollar Baby tonight, and it was so good. I was expecting it to be great even though I hadn't heard that much about it, and it was. Here is what Leonard Maltin says:

...if all you know is that it deals with an aging trainer who takes on a young female boxer, that’s perfect. The film turns out to be much more than that, a story that unfolds in layers, revealing itself even as it doles out scraps of information about its characters. The end result is a deceptively straightforward story that has real impact, and resonance.

COBZ

COBZ looks like a good head and shoulders short:

Volume Spike QQQQ

This volume spike is important. If the QQQQ can trade over its 50dma and $39, this is the bottom:

House of Flying Daggers

I wasn't expecting House of Flying Daggers to be the best movie, because of the reviews I have read, but I wouldn't have paid to see it if I would have known it was going to suck. This movie got an 88% on rottentomatoes.com, which I used to think was good enough to go see. But after watching it and Collateral (85%) I am going to have to raise my minimum to 90%.
I can't help comparing House of Flying Daggers to Twilight Samurai. Twilight Samurai is also a martial arts love story. But there is a huge difference in the manliness of the men in Daggers to theTwilight Samurai. These two men are crying over each other, giving up on all of their ideals, not caring the slightest about honor - all for the "love" (more like a high school crush) of the woman, Mei. The Twilight Samurai, however, shows tremendous strength amidst hardship, honor, courage, selflessness, real love and manliness. Basically, one is inspiring and the others are not.
Plus, if Jin and Mei are so good at flying through the air, doing splits, dodging arrows and landing punches, you would think that they would be able to make better love than just rolling around in the field like animals.

Ugly Picks

I'd watch KMRT and OSTK for shorting.

The block trade on MMP looks pretty good:

It does not look like the Nasdaq has yet made a decision as to whether it will hold the 50dma and trendline support. There was a significant block of volume (2.5 million shares) on the QQQQ at the end of the day today. This could be big money buying at support, or big money selling through it.

* user agreement -- how to use ugly picks -------------------- day 14

Books on Tape

On my long, long road trip (~42 hours driving) I listened to some books on tape. Some of my favorites were:

Chaos by James Gleick, The Art of War by Sun Tzu, and Angela's Ashes by Frank McCourt

As a stock market trader, the Chaos Theory is interesting because it "is an attempt to see and understand the underlying order of complex systems that may appear to be without order at first glance." Which is exactly the challenge of a trader. Investopedia goes on to say that

"related to financial markets, proponents of chaos theory believe that price is the very last thing to change for a stock, bond, or some other security. Price changes can be determined through stringent mathematical equations predicting the following factors:

1) A trader's own personal motives, needs, desires, hopes, fears, and beliefs, are complex and nonlinear.
2) Volume changes
3) Acceleration of the changes
4) Momentum behind the changes"

Much of the advice from The Art of War is good for business and the stock market and life in general.

"Attack where they are not prepared, go out to where they do not expect."

I will have to use some of these for Lessons of the Stock Market Samurai.
Both of these books would probably be better read as a book with your eyes, but I strongly recommend reading Angela's Ashes as the unabridged book on tape read by the author with your ears. It is some fekkin great story telling and made the drive a lot more enjoyable.

HANS

Portfolio pick HANS and its two year trendline:

Ugly Picks

Reality TV is a hit in the USA and reality porn is a hit in Europe. If you think it can make money, check out PRVT. It has a sexy chart.
Fidelity is turned on:

Fidelity and its trans-Atlantic sister company emerged as backers of "adult'' entertainment broadcaster Private Media Group, holding 12 percent of the stock.
Private has been raising temperatures in Europe with a reality porn program. Each week, five men compete for a job as a porn star. The winner is the one who performs best, on camera, with one of Private's female stars.
The show has been so red hot that its first series re-ran 76 times over there. Private Media is now in talks to launch a version here.

For lack of anything (and despite everything) else, PTRY looks pretty good.
Although I was stopped out of KEYW yesterday morning, it is looking tempting again as you can see:


From the portfolio, TRGL could be putting in a bottom, also.

The Nasdaq closed below its 50dma and 2100. It is sitting right at its trendline. It will be interesting to see what it does from here. If the trendline breaks, I guess the next stop would be around 2000 or the 200dma. If the trendline holds, it would be a good risk to reward buying chance. For now, I think it is a good time to wait and watch.

* user agreement -- how to use ugly picks -------------------- day 13

Ugly Picks

The market dumped on higher volume again for day #2 of the new year.
I raised some cash in the portfolio by being stopped out of KEYW and selling STN before its stop.
STEM did nicely, Mr. Chairman and the crew found it before the open.
Although most of the recent high fliers fell hard today, TONS moved up strongly.
If ANF can go over $50- I think it will go to $100.
I just noticed Kubooo is back with kubooo.com but I can't understand the language. Kubooo was my sensei. It looks like he likes shorting stocks now.

* user agreement -- how to use ugly picks -------------------- day 12

Vitamin Supplement

As far as I know, there is no evidence to suggest that a vitamin supplement will provide health benefits to an otherwise healthy individual. Some doctors even say it only makes "expensive urine." Still, I started taking a "once a day" vitamin supplement today. I'll take it until it runs out and see if it makes me feel any healthier. I think it might work as a placebo as I already feel the vitamins and minerals pumping throughout my veins making me stronger and healthier.

Webxercise

With a day like today, it is hard to sit in front of the screen and stare at the market all day. If you can't pull yourself away for a walk, you should at least do some webxercise.

(This blog post was made possible only by one of my favourite websites, rathergood.com, which was made famous by the very funny and enjoyable moon song, but I also very much like spoonguard.)

Ugly Day

A steep drop to start the year with heavy volume. Let's see how the Nasdaq reacts to the 2100 level and 50dma support, along with this significant trendline:

Vonage to offer wi-fi phone

Vonage will offer a wi-fi phone for $100.

Vonage, the No. 1 Internet phone company, will unveil plans Tuesday to offer subscribers a wireless Wi-Fi phone that can make calls over the Internet at homes or at public Wi-Fi hot spots. For Vonage subscribers, the phone could amount to a kind of limited-use cell phone that would cost nothing extra.

Who wouldn't sign up? It is a million times cheaper than long distance and a cell phone.
If any of you guys would like to sign up for Vonage, email me at ugly@uglychart.com and I will send you an offer where we both get a free month.

Dump Day #2

Today and yesterday don't seem like a good omen for the new year.

As goes January, so goes the year, according to an old Wall Street saying. In fact, market forecasters carefully watch market action during the first few days of January to get a sense of investors' expectations for the coming year.
- CNN/Money

Let's see how the QQQQ reacts to its 50dma of 38.67 and the previous high of 38.66.
The portfolio is getting knocked around and triggered a stop on KEYW.
FMD is showing strength amidst weakness.

Ugly Picks

The market dumped on higher volume to start the new year.
The portfolio took a hit, with TRGL TASR and CWTR each dropping over 5% and KEYW almost 10%. Although it closed slightly up, SIM was way off its high for the day.
However, none of my stops were triggered.
PRFT, mentioned here last week, was up over 40% today because they raised revenue guidance.
Although light on liquidity, CULS is on the verge of making new all-time highs and has a nice looking chart.
HAFC had a very nice looking block trade and price movement to start the new year. This looks like a safe, solid buy. FBP also.
Ugly Pick PKOH moved to a new high with volume.
GOOG made a new high - might be worth a shot.

I am eager to read William O'Neil's book How to Make Money Selling Stocks Short after reading about it from Trader Mike.

* user agreement -- how to use ugly picks -------------------- day 11

Ugly Picks

SIM looks wanted under $7. If you can get it there, I think it is a good risk to reward bet.


* user agreement -- how to use ugly picks -------------------- day 10

A new year from new york

Some pictures from my trip to NYC: