Happyweasel

You may know an uglychart regular, happyweasel, from the discussion board. He dressed up as a pirate today for Halloween. He not only likes to dress up for Halloween, but he likes to take on the role of the character that he dresses up as - today a pirate. He wrote this to me over MSN Messenger just now:

went to lunch... was walking around this food court area, at first engaging in pirate small talk... my vocabulary is quite small so i turned to staring and butting in quietly...

built up a little more courage and was reading this guys newspaper

so, for some reason i grabbed this guys newspaper and said, "it is me paper now"
he was not amused and snatched the paper back and told me to 'get the hell outta here' something like that, i got all jittery

I thought that was pretty funny.

My favorite Bob Dylan songs

The Lonesome Death of Hattie Carroll
Blowin' in the Wind
Ramblin', Gamblin' Willie
Girl of the North Country
Most of the Time
Percy's Song
Who Killed Davey Moore?
The Times They are A-Changin'

Happy Halloween

Survivor

After watching last night's episode, I have come to the conclusion that although Eliza is very sexy, Julie is the sexiest woman on the show. While searching Google for pictures of Julie sun bathing nude, I ran across playboy pictures of Amy, a lesbian contestant on the show. This was surprising as usually they only pose for playboy after the show, not before.

Ugly Picks

IPMT broke out to a new all-time high and looks to run further - why would it stop now?
CITY made a new 4-year high and may be worth watching.
RIN, of the building materials sector, looks like it has started a nice steady up trend.
NVI has been very strong for the last couple of years, how much higher can it go?
BG has been making new all-time highs. It would be a buy at its 30-week moving average.
ARDNA has practically gone up for the last 20 years and is now at the magical round number $100. Very low liquidity and low float - with a lot of insider ownership. The food retailers sector is weak, though.

Although the trend of the Nasdaq since August is up, the one-year trend is down. Both trends are now colliding and the dominate trend will win. If the Nasdaq breaks over 2000 - the up trend wins, if it drops below 1900 - the down trend wins.

Chart scruncher

I hate when you are trying to look at a chart, but you can hardly read it because of some freak trade well below or above the rest of normal trading. For example, the chart on the left shows it today on the QQQ.
And it not only makes the chart difficult to read, it also drastically changes some averages that take into account the low and high of the day, like CCI.

Texas Samurai

Man Uses Samurai Sword To Foil Robbery

"Officers said the tenant used a Samurai sword and 10-inch knives as weapons, while one of the suspects fired several gunshots. Police said all four men were injured from fighting with deadly weapons."

Ugly Picks

RBIN is breaking new all-time highs from good earnings news. It looks like a good one to buy and hold for a while when it comes back down to its 50dma or so. It is the strongest in the auto parts sector, but the sector is weak.
TRGL, one of the strongest stocks in the market, moved back over $10 with volume and looks strong.
ATLS, a recent IPO, looks very strong in the Oil & Gas sector.
ANT is another IPO that looks strong, making a new high today on earnings news.
SNDA, which I mentioned before, is moving up from its 20dma with volume.

Basically I was burnt on some (way too many) QQQ puts I own. I think I am going to have to set options trading aside for a while. The Nasdaq went up strong on big volume, busting through its 200dma, crossing CCI 100 bullishly, and coming right up to its down trend line since the beginning of the year. The up trendline that I thought was broken - I guess it wasn't. Everything points up. I have been a good contrarian indicator lately, so you may want to sell.

Page not displaying correctly

Sorry if some of you Internet Explorer users have had trouble loading this page, I use Firefox and so I don't notice it unless someone tells me. Please tell me if it happens.
Thank you,
Ugly

Corn-holed

I have a special saying for days like today - I was corn-holed.
Days like today only happen to me once in a while, but much more than I would like.
As you can see, I am on a losing streak.
I am increasing my bets on the way down and I am not limiting my risk. I am getting completely carried away with it.
Right now I am doing everything exactly wrong. It feels like I could not have done worse if the market knew my exact trades and purposely moved against me each time.
I must:
1) put on the brakes and stop heading down the quick road to complete financial ruin
2) turn around and trade the way I know how to trade
3) understand that this happens to everyone and not let it get me down
Can I do it? It is very hard because I just want to get back quickly to where I was before.
I want to bet huge and make a ton of money tomorrow.
I can do it.

Ugly Picks

AMXC, one of the strongest stocks in the market, broke out over $20 before earnings on Thursday.
For the daytraders, there is MACE.
BSRR is another lightly traded bank stock that looks good - it is making new highs on recent earnings news.
JCC is going nuts - one to watch for later.
MCRI, which I mentioned last month, looks very good - it is making new all-time highs on earnings news.

Tea leaves

I love coming into work each morning and making myself cross-eyed with caffeine from a jar of green tea. After reading about Kava, I am thinking about giving this herbal tea a try. If I mix it with green tea, I could be cross-eyed and drooling every morning at work.
Let me know if you have tried it, I am interested in what it is like.

Levels to watch

On the Nasdaq, trading below 1900 is bearish. Below the 50dma ~1888 is even more bearish. Above its 200dma ~1960 is bullish. Also watch the CCI for a bearish cross below -100.
For the QQQ, I am watching for a sign of weakness with trading below $35.50 and then $35 with its 50dma. It has a nice set up for a double top at 36.75. I am also watching for the CCI cross below -100. If it can trade and hold above its 200dma ~35.80 or 36 or 36.75 is bull, buller and bullishiest.
I believe there to be better odds that the Nasdaq will go down based on its broken trendline and its un-broken trendline.

The Crash of 1929

75 years ago the stock market crashed.

John Calverley, chief economist of American Express, in his book Bubbles and How to Survive Them, says that housing is the new bubble and that "contrary to the widely held belief that house prices always rise in the long run" they are susceptible to sharp falls.
- Still Blowing Bubbles... via the Kirk Report.

Eleven Satanic Rules of the Earth

A devil-worshipping sailor has become the first registered Satanist in the British Armed Forces. As a Satanist, he follows the eleven satanic rules of the Earth. I was glad that "do not harm little children" was a rule. This one gave me a laugh, though:

11. When walking in open territory, bother no one. If someone bothers you, ask him to stop. If he does not stop, destroy him.

Ugly Picks

RBCAA is another good looking bank stock with low liquidity.
BARI also.
HWG broke above the important round number 100 - will it go to 200 quickly? I think it looks very good.
$100 is like a magnet, and I think there is a very good chance KMRT will get there.
JUPM took a hit with the Nasdaq on Friday. Maybe in the next few months I will be able to buy it near its 30-week moving average.

Strongest sectors:
Aerospace, Air Freight, Banks, Building Materials, Coal, Construction, Consumer Electronics, Electric Utilities, Energy, Gas Utilities, Industrial Transportation, Internet Services, Lodging, Marine Transport, Mining, Oil Companies, Railroads, Recreational Products, Steel, Transportation Services, Trucking, Utilities

It looks like now is a good time to short the Nasdaq. The risk-to-reward ratio looks very good. The down trend line and the 200dma are strong resistance. If they are broken on the upside, it will be unexpectedly bullish.

Vanity

Of all sins, I believe this to be the worst.
It doesn't matter if you believe in God or not. It doesn't matter what you believe.
Confidence is one thing, pride is another.
It will make you unhappy in life and it will get you in the market.
I am the most guilty of this.
If you can see things from this perspective, losing in the market is a very good thing - it humbles you and helps to wash you of some of your pride.

Ugly

What a choppy market and what a day. Damn it.
The DJIA made a new low and is right at the 9750 level, while the Nasdaq seems to have broken its up trending line, bouncing off of its 200dma resistance (see below). The QQQ closed right below its 200dma and right at its up trending line. If it doesn't turn back up fast and hard, this will probably be the top of a wave on the continued down trend since the beginning of the year.

a QQQ trend line

Castro's dive

For those who are interested, here is a video clip of Fidel Castro falling and breaking his knee.

Trading the Red Sox

Traders on the Dublin, Ireland-based exchange who were betting on a Red Sox victory were able to redeem contracts that were almost worthless four days earlier. Traders were able to increase their investments 40-fold if they bought Boston contracts at their low and held them until today.
- Red Sox Reward Futures Traders Who Favored Them Over Yankees

Ugly Picks

BMRC has low liquidity but looks very good otherwise. It seems like there are a lot of bank stocks that look very good but have low liquidity.
ALGN is one sick dog. If it can't keep its head above $10 - and I don't think it will for long, if it does at all - it will be one to watch for shorting. This is another advantage of keeping a history of barchart.com's top 100 stocks by alpha, because once they fall off the list - they are the best to watch for shorting. ALGN was hot in '03. Many that go up fast, go down just as fast. I will eventually make the top alpha charts page searchable by symbol and date.
CTRP, which I mentioned before, has recently made some all-time highs with volume - one to watch.
FWHT is showing strength with the Nasdaq - it has a similar trendline to watch.
JUPM is a goddamn strong stock - I want to own this one.
DECK is a leader - still strong.
EXM - from the strong marine transport sector - is reversing from its 50dma and looks good for a swing trade at least.

The DJIA is weak while the Nasdaq is showing strength by moving up today with heavy volume. Money looks to be moving out of the DJIA and into the Nasdaq. We can see how it fares against its 200dma tomorrow and next week. Tomorrow looks to gap down at least based on earnings from MSFT and AMZN. The QQQ crossed over CCI 100 - which is bullish. I am watching their trendlines closely.

Ugly Picks

STEM looks like one for the daytraders.
Although low liquidity, FDT looks good.
Watch TGA if it breaks over $4.
TZOO reversed from its 50dma.

I pulled up to park along the street behind the Midwest Karate dojo for my karate class and who did I park behind? None other than my pimped out Sensei with a purple Cadillac.
The other day this blackbelt walks in and looks like he just walked down from a mountain monestary in Japan. A scary looking guy with one of those old fraying black belts that has seen the inside of many a dojo many times for many years. He seemed like the type of guy who wouldn't hesitate to kill you with the secret two move punch that Sensei hasn't shown us yet. From the changing room after class, I overheard this guy talking to Sensei in his office. It went something like this:
Sensei: Okay, I am at Yahoo Finance, now what?
Monk: Type in ATRM
Sensei: Okay, now what?
Monk: There should be something like "News" - click on it
Sensei: Okay, I clicked it.
Monk: Click on the earnings link and there should be a number to dial for the conference call. Just dial the number and you can listen to it on the phone.

That was on Monday. I just looked - ATRM dropped 26% today.

The warning

I think that the chart below shows the warning sign that I did not act on which indicated that HBP's earnings would not be as well as the market expects. I believe that one of the large institutional holders may have looked into the company and found out about the damage caused by the hurricanes and knew that it would impact the company and its earnings. Or they just knew exactly what the earnings would be. Perhaps they manipulated the breakout to create volume to which they could dispose of their shares? Whether they manipulated it or not, they found a chance during higher volume to which they could dump their shares.

Top 100 Alpha

I have started keeping a history of barchart.com's top 100 alpha list in a database and have put up a chart of each stocks movement within the list. I thought it would be helpful to see which stocks are moving up in the list and which ones are moving down. I only have three days of data so far, so it isn't much help yet.
Yesterday the QQQ sold off with heavy volume. There seems to be a lot of volume thrown around lately and it is hard to interpret. The QQQ and NYSE are holding above their 200dmas. The Nasdaq is between its 50 and 200. If the DJIA breaks below 9750, it will probably continue lower. But for now, the QQQ and the Nasdaq are holding above their up-trend lines. The mysterious 10M share spike at the trendline makes the trendline more important to me.
HBP, a stock I owned until this morning, broke down on earnings news. It is a member of the top 100 alpha list as of today, but will probably not be tomorrow.

Fischer Interview

If there are still one or two people out there who don't believe Bobby is insane, then listen to this interview (there is a long musical intro - skip ahead of it to hear Bobby's rants and ravings). Here is the second half of the interview.

No Longer Searching

"...I would like to ask you the following: Please correct the mistake of President François Mitterand in 1992. Bobby and myself committed the same crime. Put sanctions against me also. Arrest me. And put me in the same cell with Bobby Fischer. And give us a chess set."
~ Boris Spassky, Appeal to President Bush, August 7, 2004 via The Hounding of a Chess Legend

For those who don't know, Bobby Fischer was caught in Japan for playing in an illegal chess tournament in Yugoslavia with his old rival, Boris Spassky. That was a few months ago and he is still being held in the Tokyo airport.
Bobby Fischer reminds me of Bobby Dylan. They both were young when they were thrown into the spotlight and it has made them both grow up into a skewed reality. But Bobby Fischer was the greatest chess player of our time and I think Bob Dylan was the greatest songwriter of the 20th century. If you haven't seen Searching for Bobby Fischer, I very highly recommend it. It gives you a glimpse of the excitement of what most people consider to be a dull game.

In my humble opinion

The market is going up from here. More specifically, the QQQ is going up from the 10 million share thrust on Friday.

The Kirk Report

Supposedly Barrons has written an article about how the Kirk Report is one of the best stock market blogs out there. I haven't been able to read this article, because I do not have a subscription to Barrons and bugmenot is not working for this site. Hopefully the article mentions how much better the blog is now that right clicking has been re-enabled.
To become a member to his website, you must donate. Do people set up these donation-based member websites for tax reasons? Or are they trying to appeal to our ethical side? ("Donation" makes it seem like such a happier transaction). Personally, I don't like it - it is confusing. How much do I give? How long does it last?
I think that a set subscription rate would work better for both his members and himself, but I could be wrong.

Ugly Picks

The market seems optimistic about South Africa.
I am optimistic about VSEC.
PENN is going to $50 at least.
Although low liquidity, LAN has broken through and is staying above some pretty significant long term resistance at $10 - so it is worth watching.
USG finally broke over $20 with volume - the chart looks good and I think building materials companies will do well because of the damage from the hurricanes. But it has a lot of long term overhead resistance and low insider ownership.
APRO broke out to a new ten year high on unusually high volume with no news.

Penance

Although trading in the market can sometimes seem like a game, it is a very serious thing. I wish it weren't true, but to be realistic, money can mean the difference between life and death. It can mean the difference between suffering and happiness.
I was raised in a lower middle class family and my parents are still in debt. My father has worked in a factory for most of his life. My sister is on welfare and lives in the projects with a young child. I am not looking for pity and I don't blame them for this - they are very kind, loving and intelligent people. I think that may have something to do with the reason they are poor.
But with the stock market I have been lucky enough to get a chance at helping to relieve some of the burden from my family. It is very important to me that I do not squander this opportunity.
Therefore, since I have not been following my rules in trading and I am not on the right path to success, I am going to sleep on the floor next to my bed tonight and tomorrow I will fast. Not to punish myself, but in penance and to align myself correctly for the direction I want to go.

Your trading system

Interestingly, it is not that difficult to find a trading system that can make you rich. There are systems published in many books that explain in detail how to trade and win. And these systems work. It is not about being smart enough to come up with or discover a trading system that beats the market. These systems have been discovered and published and taught and learned long ago by many people. Yet, most people lose money in the market. Because the real battle is within each trader. It has less to do with their system than with their consistency and emotional stability. You have to be able to stick to your system and trade wihtout emotion. And you need to be able to do this over and over and over again for years and years without fail.

The 10 million dollar mystery man

Actually, it was over 10 million shares valued at around $350 million (plus or minus a few million).

Regarding this trade on the QQQ, I still don't get it:

businessweek.com shows this:
10/15/04 - 10:46:07 - 35.597 - 34.437 - 35.570 - 10,367,400
but it says these shares were traded as low as 34.437 and yet businessweek along with everyone else says the low of the day was 35.28

yahoo's intraday chart and quote.com's intraday chart do not show the spike.

but both bigcharts.com's intraday chart and nasdaq.com's intraday chart show the spike (bigcharts.com seems to be off and on - sometimes it shows it and sometimes it doesn't).

Very interesting...

10,000,000 share blip on the QQQ?

My real-time chart with Ameritrade is showing a 10M share spike within the last 15 minutes on the QQQ, but it isn't showing on other charts. If this is real, it is huge.

QQQ to its 50-day

I think the QQQ will go to its 50-day moving average on this decline. Today is options expiration and the max pain point for the QQQ is $35. I expect this downward momentum to continue until we see some significant volume with a reverse in price movement.

Ouch

NFLX down 36% after hours because of bad news.

Presidential Poll Chart -vs- DJIA

I have combined the chart of the presidential election polls and the DJIA since the start of the year to see if there was any correlation. Up until September, it looks as if Kerry's chart and the DJIA were reaching peaks and dips during the same time. But in September, Bush moved up with the market and is now moving down with the market. Anybody see anything else?

This was inspired from an article about the statistic that the direction of the stock market two months before the election predicts the outcome, which I read via the Kirk Report.

Texas Hold'em

I was up late last night playing in my first Texas Hold'em tournament. I used my strategy for trading stocks - cut your losers and let your winners run. As with trading stocks, once you have a nice win, you have the cushion to scrap your losers and wait for another nice hand. The thing that got me last night were the increasing blinds. When you get that late in the game, you really need to change your strategy and play hands you otherwise would not, I think. It adds the element of time to the game - maybe a little like trading options.
Playing poker helped me to look at myself as a trader from a different angle. I was able to see some areas of my game that I need to work on.

Ugly Picks

OZRK looks pretty good.
UTIW has a nice steady up trend - I would try to buy it around its 30 week moving average.

What a day for the markets. A gap up on YHOO and INTC earnings news and then closing down with increased volume - obvious sign that the big money was selling. Commodities had their worst one day drop in two years - it may be a good time to watch some of these charts for signals to short.
The DJIA closed right at 10,000 - but looks to break it down, along with crossing below CCI -100. It looks like it is set to make a new year-to-date low within the next month or so.

Right clicking re-enabled

I noticed today that right-clicking is now re-enabled at the Kirk Report after I complained about it yesterday.

Millionaires for Bush, Billionaires for Kerry

At a certain point—somewhere north of $10 million—wealth may become "f*** you and f*** you, Republicans" money. This is the kind of cash that George Soros, Warren Buffett, Peter Lewis, and the 200 business leaders who endorsed Kerry possess.
- Millionaires for Bush, Billionaires for Kerry via the Kirk Report

So first you must make the f*** you, Democrats money and then the f*** you, Republicans money. I'm currently only at the f*** you, politicians money level.

Pumpkin Kiai

I don't like karate. I love karate.

Prison spokeswoman Andrea Dean said Dennis was allowed a special meal the evening before his execution -- fried catfish, lasagna with meat sauce, garlic bread, sweet potato pie, pecan pie and pumpkin pie, all with whipped cream, as well as vanilla and chocolate ice cream.
From yahoo news

That's sweet. Only, it just does not make any sense to me at all. Would you have an appetite the day before you were going to be executed? I strongly oppose the death penalty. By the way, Dennis was the same age as me and was born in the same city as me.

Ugly Picks

I didn't see any news, but DWSN made a new all-time high with a huge volume increase - so it looks good.
QCCO is a strong buy - it had its IPO in mid July.


It is the peak of Autumn here in the Twin Cities and I brought my camera with me on a walk along the Mississippi river:

A Rare Interview

Click here to listen to a rare interview with Bob Dylan.
Even though NPR does a nice job of arranging the interview to sound like a normal interview with a normal person, I think that Dylan lost touch with reality a long long time ago.

Here is an open letter to the president from many business school professors from around the country.

Why would anyone in their right mind disable right clicking on their website? Doesn't everyone use it to open new tabs, new windows, etc...? It is so annoying.

Did you know that Brussels sprouts were named after the capital of Belgium because that is where they may have first been cultivated? I call them "little balls of health." They are "one of the best green 'super foods', loaded with vitamins, phytochemicals and antioxidants" (Experience Life, Oct. 2004 p.58)
I am also into drinking pomegranate juice lately. Pomegranate juice is "an antioxidant superpower. It contains more of these substances than any other drink, including green tea, red wine, and blueberry and grape juices. It's particularly rich in antioxidants called polyphenols, which can help combat heart disease, premature aging, Alzheimer's, and certain cancers" (Health, Oct. 2004, p.157).

Eating well not only keeps you physically healthy, but also mentally, emotionally and spiritually healthy. Physical exercise, such as going for walks, also does the same. And the better your physical, mental and spiritual health, the better you will trade in the stock market.

Ugly Picks

VNBC has a great chart and is a strong buy, but earnings are tomorrow so be careful.
ARKR continues to look good - but it has very low liquidity so only trade small positions.
SNDA, an ugly pick, is strong.

There was really low volume today in the market because of Columbus day. So basically whatever happened to the market in general today means little. The more volume, the more meaning. One thing to note, however, is that the QQQ did not move above the price it was when the volume thrust came a couple of days ago. This looks like resistance to me. Does it also predict tomorrow's earnings announcements of YHOO and INTC? I guess it could.

Here is ugly, only seconds from the finish line.

Heian Shodan

Today we practiced our first kata, the Heian Shodan, which we will need to demonstrate as part of testing for an orange belt.
Once I become a karate blackbelt, I will then be able to star in my own kung fu movies.
I think that chess and karate are beneficial to trading in the stock market. In order to win in chess, you must organize, memorize and use strategic thinking. You must be able to analyze the situation with an open mind and without emotion.
A trait that Richard Dennis looked for when interviewing people for the "turtles" was that they played chess.
I also believe, despite criticism from others, that freecell is beneficial to stock trading. In order to win consistently in freecell, you must use strategic thinking and the ability to "sit on your hands" until you are absolutely sure of your move - this is also extremely important in tournament "touch move" chess and with trading stocks.

Ugly Picks

ATN looks like it is headed to the dumps - a good one to short.
HWG looks like a strong buy. Low volume though - only 500k float.
PVR also looks like a strong buy in a strong sector - coal.
MDKI might be good for a daytrade or swing trade next week.
I remember when SBAC was trading at around $0.25. Not now, but I think in the future it will be a good one to short. But it could go to $10 before then.
CTRP might be worth watching - especially how it reacts to $40 and then possibly $50.

Michael Moore

About 9000 people watched the debate on Friday with Michael Moore at the University of Minnesota. He had a cushioned chair and a TV and we watched from four large screens facing each side of the crowd from the center of the stage. He would make a few comments during the debate and would put in something like $50 for each dumb look from Bush, $100 for each lie, $10 for each bad joke - all of which would be donated to Kerry's campaign.
After the debate he did his usual song and dance about getting us slackers to vote.
He didn't look well - they said he had a fever and "walking pneumonia."
I bought his new book for $25, had it signed, and I am now selling it on eBay and hoping for a 300% profit.

Reminiscences on mistakes

It seems incredible that knowing the game as well as I did and with an experience of twelve or fourteen years of speculating in stocks and commodities I did precisely the wrong thing. The cotton showed me a loss and I kept it. The wheat showed me a profit and I sold it out... Always sell what shows you a loss and keep what shows you a profit. That was so obviously the wise thing to do and was so well known to me that even now I marvel at myself for doing the reverse.
Reminiscences of a Stock Operator, p. 154

I sometimes think that no price is too high for a speculator to pay to learn that which will keep him from getting the swelled head. A great many smashes by brilliant men can be traced directly to the swelled head - an expensive disease everywhere to everybody, but particularly in Wall Street to a speculator.
Reminiscences of a Stock Operator, p. 160

Volume thrust in the QQQ

If the QQQ closes over $36 - this volume shows support and I don't see the QQQ going lower than $36 anytime soon. This volume could also be dumping at the top and the QQQ could continue down from here. It is important to note this volume, though. It's meaning should become more clear by the end of the day and throughout next week.

Watching the debate?

Can Kerry keep the momentum going?
How about those Twins?
I am going to watch the debate tonight with Michael Moore.

Ugly Picks

ANDE broke out to a new all time high and the charts look good.
LZB looks only to continue down.
BEBE broke out on today's good news - I would rather see a move like this on no news, but it still looks good.
BLTI looks good to short.
I think SBNY looks good to buy and hold.

Sensei's lesson for the day: the body is tender, yet powerful.

Refining Ugly Picks Page

I have gone through previous Ugly Picks and pulled out some of the ones that don't look as good as the others. Every pick on the Ugly Picks page looks like a winner and I would be surprised to see them not continue in their up trend. I think that most of them would also be good for long term trading (i.e. they would be good in the retirement account). Don't confuse the few that are for shorting with the rest that are for buying.

Ugly Picks

The Nasdaq broke and closed above its 200dma. The S&P 500 looks to break out June's highs and the QQQ continues with its up momentum. My advice is to trade stocks individually now based on their charts or to sit out this sideways trend. The market since the beginning of the year is sideways and more recently it has a strong upwards momentum.

I would keep an eye on SNMX and the round number $10.
RNT has just been going up for years and years - why should it stop now?
SLXP is weak in a weak sector - good for shorting.

Halloween is coming up soon, so if you don't have a costume then you better hurry. I won't give you any hints as to mine - but I think I like it even better than my costume from last year, which was truly a great costume.

A note to my readers

Dear Faithful Readers,
Thank you for making today a very special day. I made more today with Google Adsense than I ever have any other day.
Thanks again,
Ugly

HBP breakout

I thought this was coming based on yesterday's volume, sorry I didn't mention it sooner. This breakout looks to go over the psychologically important round number $10. It looks like a good risk to reward bet around the $9.50 area.

Ugly Picks

MAD, which I mentioned before, broke out over the round number $10 on nice volume - looks good.
IIIN is the strongest stock in the market, it made a new high again today. You can check the top 100 stocks here.
SNDA broke out to a new all-time high and the chart looks nice.
GIVN also making new all-time highs.
MTEX broke out over $15 and looks like a sure bet to $20 at least.
ABAX looks like a good short.
CFNL broke out over $10.

I have been trying to think of a business where I could make about $200 million a year. If I can make that much, I figure I will be a millionaire in no time. I have narrowed it down to two types of businesses: 1) you buy and sell things that are expensive (e.g. real estate, cars, stocks, etc...) so that when you sell one you make a lot of money on a small % profit, or 2) you sell low priced things to millions of people. If I could somehow incorporate multilevel marketing and RSS into my business, I think I could be rich.

The good thing about using Google Adsense on your website is that, even though you may make almost nothing because you hardly have any visitors and they never click on the ads - whenever you go to an internet cafe, you can get tea and a muffin for free simply buy going to your website and clicking the ads. No matter how many times I click the ads from home, I make $0.00. But from the coffeeshop down the street, I make enough at least to pay for my drink.

It could be worse

If you are ever having a bad day in the markets, just remember it could be a lot worse.
And don't ever try to cut off a chicken's head while you are naked and you just woke up.

Ugly Picks

MFI has low volume, but a nice break out from a long base.
RESC also broke out on no news - a member of the very strong Steel sector. FRD from this sector has a nice chart also.
PKOH, which has been strong over a year, broke out above $20 Friday and is close to making new all-time highs.
SIMC, which I've mentioned before, continues to trade strong.
ARKR, which I mentioned in July, broke out to a new high on Friday.
PMTI, one of kubooo's favorites from last year, broke out on Friday to a new high and looks good to buy.

As you can see, they were able to trick me out of some of my money with the market the last few days. It's alright to be wrong, but I should let them get as little of my money as possible, which I did not do. I thought the markets were heading back down to new lows - and I even noticed and mentioned the volume spike bottom on Tuesday - but the "small bump" turned out to be a little larger than I expected as the QQQ broke above $36 - a new 2-month high, over its 200dma, while crossing over CCI 100 - with volume, which is all very bullish. It will be interesting to see where it goes from here. I want to see if it can hold $36 and if it does - how will it react to the $37.50-$38 area and even if it can break above $39.

Touching the Void was the perfect inspirational movie to watch last night before running the marathon today. It is an incredible true story and I recommend it to you. I think I may put up a movie ratings page, similar to Chairman Maoxian's, for uglychart.com. He will probably give you better advice for the stock market, but I will give you better advice for movies (Terminator 3 ? Come on, man). I just noticed Touching the Void is on the list.

Mistakes and the market

He [Michael Marcus] taught me one other thing that is absolutely critical: You have to be willing to make mistakes regularly; there is nothing wrong with it. Michael taught me about making your best judgment, being wrong, making your next best judgment, being wrong, making your third best judgment, and then doubling your money.
- Bruce Kovner, Market Wizards

Even if I lost everything and went bankrupt, I would save up some capital and return to trading in the markets. Other people have made fortunes in the market and I am not going to stop until I do. There is no reason I can't make a fortune if other people can.

Is God against me?

Many times in the stock market, I feel like God is against me. It feels like this because sometimes I make a trade and then the market immediately turns the other way. Other times I feel like this because it just seems like I can't win, trade after trade. Sometimes I don't stick to my rules and I just watch the market move against me the entire day. It is depressing as hell.
It is even more depressing when you know other people are making tons of money - your money.
It can make you feel nauseous or give you a headache.
You start to want to do things differently - take more risks. You want to make the money back quickly.
Many people even kill themselves when they lose everything. It can be psychologically devastating.
In order to win in the market, you have to be able to pick yourself up and shake it off and continue to trade the way that you have always done well with.
Everyone screws up and you have to be able to take it like a man and push on.

Ugly Picks

ERES has an ugly chart. This is one to watch for shorting.
PSBI is going nuts - it has low but growing volume.
CRAI broke out over a year-long base to a new all-time high. But the institutional ownership is high, so there may not be a lot of demand.
FHRX broke out over $20 finally - it looks really good for a swing trade at least, watch it tomorrow and next week.

October. This is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks in. The others are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August, and February.
-Mark Twain

I looked online and couldn't find anywhere to buy the boyfriend's arm pillow. I think it would be funny to have around the apartment. I guess a girlfriend's arm pillow wouldn't be as popular unless it was designed more like one of these. Those are really funny too, but I wouldn't want one around the apartment. Make sure to scroll down the page - they get funnier as you scroll.